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dtsdlaw

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Everything posted by dtsdlaw

  1. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Typhoid Mary was arrested based on circumstantial evidence of her infection, but she was not sentenced to quarantine until after she was tested and she was determined to have extremely high levels of the bacteria in her system that caused Typhoid. Seems to me that's a bit different than quarantining people before they are even tested, just based on who they may have been in contact with. There are also important differences in Typhoid and SARS-CoV-2 that I think make the situations non-comparable. Typhoid is caused by bacteria in feces. SARS-CoV-2 is a virus transmitted in the air by droplets and aerosols. There's a giant slippery slope in there if you're relying on the case of Typhoid Mary's extraordinary fecal bacteria levels to justify quarantining anyone who may have come into contact with an aerosolized viral particle.
  2. Saying that people potentially exposed to a virus are "not healthy" and justifying quarantines that way.... I dunno...... I think a lot of people are wondering how far you're willing to take this. Roughly 50% of influenza infections are asymptomatic, and it's been estimated that asymptomatic carriers of influenza transmit the virus to about 6% of household contacts (which may be even higher than the asymptomatic transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2). Influenza kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people worldwide each year, which is obviously less than the acute pandemic stage of COVID-19 has been, but is likely to be more than endemic COVID-19 will be once we reach a certain level of infection and vaccines have been equitably distributed worldwide. Annual flu vaccines are also generally between 40%-60% effective (some years as low as 10%), and you just know that influenza is going to come roaring back in the next couple of years after its virtual disappearance over the past 18 months. Plus, hockey is a winter sport with a regular season that coincides almost exactly with the CDC's definition of "flu season". So where are we once COVID-19 subsides and flu is back? And how about other highly transmissible respiratory illnesses like Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), which can also transmit asymptomatically and has relatively high mortality rates for the elderly and young children, and for which there is no vaccine? Or other coronaviruses. I've read that HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-229E have estimated case fatality rates of >10% among the elderly, even though they cause mild cold symptoms or are asymptomatic in most people. Really, aren't we all, to a certain extent, Schroedinger's cat when it comes to transmissible viruses?
  3. True. And he's essentially a 4th line energy guy who is good on the PK. So a left-shot Rowney. Yep, that's got Bob Murray written all over it. I wonder which young player he pushes out of the line up...
  4. LOL. I keep having the movie "Dave" run through my head every time I see GMBM on the zoom videos these days.
  5. He's supposedly not handling the contracts anymore (Solomon is), so this proves nothing.
  6. Your visit to D-land in May was before the California "reopening" on June 15th, and I think a lot changed after the reopening and for at least the next couple of months. I'm sure it was easier to identify mask policy "violators" back then when capacity was only 25% and everyone was being told where they could stand. But if they open the Honda Center to full capacity and have the concessions open, good luck enforcing a policy in the concourse during intermissions.
  7. What's your definition of "indoor"? We were there in July and in the ride queues for Indiana Jones, Star Wars Smuggler's Run, Star Wars Galaxy's Edge, Star Tours, and Pirates of the Caribbean, which are all mostly indoors, I saw lots of kids under 12 without masks on (or on their chins), and the cast members said nothing to them or their parents. Same for the main Disney store in Downtown Disney. Just my opinion, but I think it's too much of an ask for venue employees to enforce a mask mandate when there are legitimate/approved reasons to remove the mask, such as eating or drinking. I suspect it will be the same at Ducks games.
  8. We were at Knott's on June 18th and there was none of that going on. Inside or outside. For any ages.
  9. It’s an ice rink. It’s cold. I guarantee the ushers will not be able to see wristbands under the sleeves of jerseys and jackets. It’s just not practical.
  10. This only seems workable if they also close down the concessions. Because anyone who doesn't want to wear a mask is just going to slow-eat/drink their fries and beer and claim that their mask is down because they're eating. A mask requirement would be a nightmare for the staff to enforce if there is food and drinks.
  11. San Diego County's population is roughly 3.3 million and we have the Ducks minor league affiliate as one of the only shows in town. Youth hockey is also really growing down here too (Thatcher Demko is from my town and grew up on the local ice rink here). It's also a nice, easy ride on the Amtrak to Anaheim on game days. If they had any sense, the organization would be marketing the crap out of the Ducks down here, including having pre-season games here like the Lakers used to do. It's hard to market a loser though.
  12. It's unfortunately both for the NHL, and we could be in for a really weird season. For example, Frank Seravalli said on the DFO Rundown podcast yesterday that somewhere between 50-100 NHL players (~5-10%) are currently not in compliance with the NHL's vaccine protocols, many because they have eschewed the vaccines due to their own prior infections. Meanwhile, several countries in Europe are starting to recognize prior infection as an exception to their vaccine passports and there is emerging data that prior infection may be as robust, or perhaps even more robust, than vaccine-induced immunity, and so I don't think it would be a surprise if the vaccine requirement got very political once players started losing game checks because they refused a vaccine due to their pre-existing natural immunity. Many professional athletes are pretty intense about controlling what goes into their bodies (remember MacKinnon from earlier in the summer?), so it wouldn't surprise me if there were several dozen players who didn't get the jab despite the restrictions and penalties. I think that issue could get intensely political, and likely legal, if it turns out to be "face of the franchise" types. Masking the team personnel during games too. Are they going to continue the dog and pony show with the coaches masked while they stand quietly behind the bench, and then wearing the mask as a chin strap while they yell at the refs and give instructions to their players on the bench and in the huddle during timeouts? This is not a commentary about the efficacy of masking for you and me btw, but about what a joke it was for the NHL to "require" the coaches to be masked during games for health reasons when the only time the coaches actually wore the masks was when they were standing quietly away from their players. It happened all of last season. Seriously, do a google image search for any coach last season if you need proof. Tortorella, Brind'amour, Ducharme, Trotz, etc., etc. They ALL had their masks around their chins while they're actually coaching. (Eakins probably would have done the same if he actually, you know, coached.) Yet, as far as I know, not a single coach got fined or disciplined for mask violations (unlike the NFL, where they fined coaches and teams hundreds of thousands of dollars). Bettman said at the start of the season that the league would "vigorously enforce" the masking requirement for coaches, but if it was really a health issue for the coaches and players, and not just performative politics, where were the fines? Where was the discipline? There was none. As for masks at Honda Center this season, will paper bags on heads count?
  13. The cap is not like a per diem from the league, where the owners can either spend it or pocket what they don't spend. It's just an upper limit on the amount an owner can spend on the roster for the season.
  14. Correct about the viral load being equal, but I was responding your post about children presenting a very low health risk to those that care for them, which you claimed was false based on viral loads. I don't think viral load data can be used to counter that claim any more than +/- can be used to argue whether Drew Doughty is a better or worse defenseman than Cody Ceci.
  15. I'm going to remain optimistic that, if the team continues to flounder and they sell off Getzlaf, Rakell, Lindholm, etc. at the deadline, they will be a broker team. The Seattle expansion fees make that completely practical.
  16. Without any other moves to make the team better in the immediate future, I can't see the Ducks wanting Tarasenko even if they did like Russians. However, you have to wonder if GMBM has been given the green light to be a broker team since he hasn't made any other moves this summer. Tarasenko's contract is brutal this season ($9.5M in actual salary) but it drops to $5.5M in actual salary next season. If the Ducks waited until, say, after Christmas, could they take on half of his remaining salary as a middle man? There has to be a decent market for a 30-year-old Tarasenko at a $3.75M cap hit, right? I would think they'd get at least a 1st rounder + prospect out of it. That's still a lot of $$ to retain though.
  17. Fleury is currently 4th or 5th on Seattle's LHD depth chart behind Oleksiak, Giordano, Soucy and perhaps Dunn. It would be very Bob Murray to give up more assets to reacquire him. If he did, I wouldn't hate on it too much if it were for the right price.
  18. Last I heard this agreement has not been finalized, and that it's likely there will be exceptions for players like Drysdale who played a substantial number of both AHL and NHL games. And if Drysdale is one of the best 6 or 7 D-men in the organization coming out of training camp, why not keep him with the Big Club. There's no reason to give him top-4 minutes if he's not ready for them, but having him play sheltered 3rd pair minutes and PP would be just fine. I think 15 minutes of E/S TOI/game with a heavy emphasis on O-zone starts would be great for his development, and is probably what the Ducks should have done with Fowler all those years ago instead of having Fowler play 22+ mins/game. The big question though is who will play with Drysdale on a 3rd pair. For the love of all things holy, it better not be Larsson.
  19. Definitely. But if Buffalo lines up another trade partner, Gibby could waive the NTC. It would make sense if there’s a team in win now mode that could be a secondary trade partner, like how Nashville was when Colorado dealt Duchene to Ottawa. Maybe Dallas? They’re in their window now, and I can’t imagine they feel great about the age and health status of their goaltenders. And I’m sure Buffalo would love to get their hands on a younger guy like Oettinger, who fits their rebuilding timeline better. Maybe something like: To Anaheim: Eichel, Ben Bishop To Dallas: Gibson, ANA 3rd (2022) To Buffalo: ANA 1st (2022 - protected), Lundestrom, Oettinger, LaCombe, DAL 2nd (2022), Kesler Not that I think this particular trade would happen, but I do think there are trades out there that would make sense involving Gibson if there was a 3rd team involved.
  20. You’d have to assume Buffalo would want him only so they could flip him for other assets. There’s no point in Buffalo acquiring a guy like Gibby at this stage of their rebuild.
  21. Crosby is 34 and Malkin is 35 and in the final year of his contract, and their team has major goaltending issues. Watch the Penguins sell off Malkin, miss the playoffs, and then win the Shayne Wright sweepstakes. You know its coming. Wright is the Next Next One. They'll screw Arizona and Anaheim every day of the week and twice on Sundays to make that story line work.
  22. LOL at Manson brining back a 1st. He'll need a MAJOR bounce-back season for that to happen. Arizona had a better roster than us last season, but they also had a bunch of pending UFAs that made them better. Imagine if they had sold off guys like Goligoski and Hjalmarsson at the TDL instead of trying to make the playoffs. They're also going with a scorched earth rebuild and trading useful players that they had retained rights to for a long time. Dvorak and Garland are both only 25, can play in the top-6, and would have been under team control for several more seasons. We don't really have a useful 24/25/26-year-old in that skill range, but the closest would be Terry. Should we trade Terry for just picks as part of our rebuild? Didn't think so. Their trade of OEL would also be the equivalent of trading Fowler which, outside of one particular fan on this board, I haven't really seen anyone talking about as an important part of the rebuild. Are you all in on trading Fowler too? That said, I do think the Ducks missed out on landing any bad contracts in exchange for assets. With all of our cap space, if the Ducks weren't going to add any GOOD players to the roster, they should have been in on garbage contracts like Stralman, Ghostbear, or Andrew Ladd. Those three players got the Yotes four 2nds and a 3rd. Apparently the Ducks originally didn't plan on taking any bad contracts this season in exchange for assets and have since come around on the idea, but I frankly don't see many bad contracts left around the league for them to do that. So far, it's just a totally wasted offseason.
  23. Welp, we have three of them (counting Getzlaf).
  24. FWIW, on today's Athletic podcast, Pronman discussed Canada's U18/U20 camp (where they combined the two camps on the final day) and he specifically mentioned that McTavish and Zellweger were stand-outs at the camp based on reports he got from scouts who attended. For Zellweger, he went further to state that it was unusual for someone his age to have such a good showing against U20s. I know I shouldn't get excited, but...
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