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Ovechkin To Break Gretzky's All-Time Goal Scoring Record?

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Ovechkin needs to get to 895 goals to break Gretsky's all-time goal scoring record. With 414 goals, he is 481 goals away. He is 28. If he scores no more goals this season (not likely), then, starting next season, he will need to score 40 goals each season until he is 40 and he will have the new record!

Anybody think he can do it? I do! He is still young enough to have a few more 50 goal seasons, meaning he only has to have 30 goals at 39 and 40 (as long as he scores at least 40 goals each other season).

I think there is no question Ovechkin has to be in the conversation for best goal scorer of all-time. Better than Gretsky! Ovechkin is doing what he is doing against defense systems that are much better than when Gretsky first started playing. The defensemen are stronger than when Gretsky played. The goaltenders are better. The nets are smaller. The goalie pads are bigger. To even have a shot at breaking the record is remarkable. Can you imagine how many more goals he would have if he started in Gretsky's era? He might have already broken the record! Haha.

I think Ovechkin has the chance to be the first player ever to reach 900 goals! Anybody else agree?

Edited by Administrator

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I don't think he'll top Gretzky's numbers but I do think the record for highest scoring Russian is his for the taking now that Kovalchuk is gone. He might even challenge Selanne and Jagr for most goals by a European if he stays in North America. The NHL would be a lot more boring without him, that's for sure.

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Gretzky also played in an era that doesnt have nearly the protective equipment, nutritional knowledge, and injury treatment that Ovechkin has at his disposal. Two different eras, so please dont compare what one would have done during the others time. 

 

Keep in mind Gretzky was a passer FIRST, shooter second. If the Great One had the same scoring mentality that Ovechkin does, which is shoot shoot shoot, he could have had 1200 goals. 

 

I personally dont see Ovechkin sticking around long enough to touch Gretzky's record. and asking for 40 goals when your 35-40 is A LOT. I think the record is safe.

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Well, at 43 goals this season, he just has 11 more seasons to go, at 40 goals a season, to break Gretsky's record.  Should be a fun 11 more years.  Would be crazy if it happens.  And if he gets to 50 goals this season, which is very likely, then he just needs to get 30 goals his 11th season.  Hey, Selenne got to 40 goals after his 35th birthday.  I don't see any reason why Ovechkin won't, as long as he stays healthy.  I truly believe that, if he stays healthy, he will likely break Gretsky's goal scoring record.  Amazing!

Edited by duck123
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If not for the 2004-05 lockout, I think Ovi might have gotten there, or at least a lot closer. As it was, he didn't start his NHL career until age 20, whereas Gretzky started at 18. If he'd come over for a 2004-05 season he's probably sitting just north of 500 goals right now, and probably more than 510 at season's end. That would have shaved a year off your "40 until 40" calculation, duck123, which would have made it  really interesting. The way Ovi plays the game, with so much passion and joy, I also can't see him walking away from the NHL until he literally can't skate anymore. I don't know what his workout ethic is like, but if it's even half of what Selanne's or Jagr's is then I could see the second greatest 8 playing until age 40+. Nevertheless, he's probably going to fall short of Gretzky's goal record.

 

Barring major injury, I do think he'll catch Gordie Howe (801g) though.

Edited by dtsdlaw
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these old records are hard to break, the game has changed a lot since then and it's much harder to score goals with today's goaltenders, bigger equipment, more coverage but I like it.

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You know, since I wrote this about 2 years ago, Ovechkin has scored about 100 goals. Amazing.  He now has 510 goals.  He currently leads the NHL with 35 goals.  He has scored at least 51 goals the last 2 seasons . He's on pace to have another 50 goal season.  And he's never scored less than 32 goals in his NHL career.  I remember the analysts seeming to think he was done a few years ago.  Now, about to have his third 50+ goal season in the last 3 years, I think everybody has to conclude he is still the greatest goal scorer in our game today. 

 

The question I want to ask people again now is if they think Ovechkin can break Gretzky's record.  Look, he's only 30.  He's not slowing down any time soon.  Let's remember that Selanne scored 40 goals at 35 years old, and 48 goals at 36 years old.  Let's just put it this way.  Ovechkin is 400 goals away from being at 910 goals.  That would be 15 more goals than Gretzky.  By the way, anybody think Gretzky should have played one more season to be the first to 900 goals? 

 

At 30 years old, Ovechkin can definitely break the record, in my opinion.  And I think he will.  Let's remember Jagr is still playing at a high level at 44 years old.  Jagr already has 17 goals and 23 assists this season.  If Ovechkin can stay healthy, and wants to break the record, I think he can play at a high level for at least as long as Jagr is playing.  And I think he can break the record.  We'll see if I'm right. 

 

By the way, let's go Ducks!

Edited by duck123
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A lot can happen over the course of a few years. He'll need to score 50 goals for the next 8 seasons. Don't know whether he can keep up the same level of play for that long. The way he plays he asks a lot from his body.

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A lot can happen over the course of a few years. He'll need to score 50 goals for the next 8 seasons. Don't know whether he can keep up the same level of play for that long. The way he plays he asks a lot from his body.

This. 50 goals a season for the next 8 years? Do-able but unlikely. There will be an inevitable slow down due to age, injuries etc.

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Yes, but if he plays until the age of Jagr, he just needs to average around 29 goals for the next 14 seasons to get 400 more goals...and to break the record.  I think most will agree he can play at least until the age of Jagr.  And most will probably also agree that Ovechkin can probably be capable of scoring 29 goals well into his 40's.  This is not even factoring in the fact that he probably will score a lot more goals this season, probably will score at least 50 goals for a few more seasons, and probably will have some more 40 + goals seasons.  As long as he stays healthy and wants to play as long as Jagr is playing, I think he will definitely break the record.  But we shall see.  :)

Edited by duck123

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I don't think most would agree he can at least play until the age of Jagr, and certainly not well, because what Jagr is doing is extraordinary.  You're basically suggesting Ovechkin should have no problem doing something that no one else can do.  Admittedly, Ovechkin is the best goal scorer of his generation, but there is no guarantee he ages well, and he'd have to age unbelievably well for him to do what Jagr is.  

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I think it's definitely possible. Gretzky had 894G. As of today (February 19, 2016) Ovechkin is at 512G. Ovi needs 382G to match Gretzky. Seems like an awful lot, but then I look at Teemu Selanne's numbers and I think Ovi's got a legit shot at it.

 

Ovi is currently 30 years old. If he makes it to 50 goals this season (13 more), he'll be at 525G and he'll need 369 more goals to catch #99. Between ages 31 and 43, Teemu scored 305G, but that included an entire season canceled (04-05) when Teemu was only 34 y/o and Teemu's pseudo-retirement in 07-08 when he played only 26 games. Could Teemu have scored 369G (i.e. an additional 65G) between ages 31 and 43 if the 04-05 lockout and his pseudo-retirement hadn't happened? Maybe. But Ovi is also scoring at a much higher rate than Teemu was at this stage of his career. Teemu also missed 74 games over his final six seasons so there's some margin built into the comparison for Ovechkin's potential health issues as he gets older.

 

Barring serious injury or early retirement, I think Ovi has a chance.

Edited by dtsdlaw
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heck no! not a chance,no what so ever!

 

In couple of years Ovechkin moves back to Russia to play in the KHL

he has been close to move back so many times,not liking the fact that he isn't winning

- year after year his former team MDynamo has a great team and challenges for the cup

almost every season.

 

Or like every Russian born player so far (one or two exceptions),he starts to decline quite quickly after 30

there is a reason why he is the only Russian born player with 500 career goals.

(lots of injuries,motivation)

 

best scenario;he will end up in some between 660-700 career goals

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Don't forget that would could be seeing another round of goalie equipment or rule changes coming soon. That'll be huge for a pure scorer like OV.

 

That's something that could impact things yes... even the the 3 on 3 OT

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Ovechkin has played in a much tougher goal scoring era than Gretzky. Straight up - head to head, I would take Great 8 in today's' game.

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Ovechkin is now ONLY 370 goals away from breaking Gretzky's ultimate goal-scoring record.  And he is only 30 years old!  Let's remember how many goals Selanne was able to score at 35 years old, and over.  Selanne had 40 goals at 35, followed by 48 goals at 36.  Ovechkin just had two seasons with 50+ goals.  Does anybody doubt he has a few more seasons in him where he'll score at least 50 goals?  Nope.  And if you asked the regular NHL fan if they think he will score at least 370 more goals before he retires...not mentioning Gretzky's record...I think most fans would respond with: "Of course!  We're talking about Ovechkin!" 

 

I do think he has AT LEAST a few more seasons where he will score at least 50 goals, and then a few more seasons after that where he will score at least 40 goals, followed up possibly with some 30+ goals seasons from there on out to finish his career.  But let's just take the worst case scenario.  Let's say Ovechkin suddenly see's a sudden decline in scoring and scores only 30 goals each season, for the next 10 years.  Folks, even at that low rate of scoring (Low, for Oveckin's standards), Ovechkin will have still scored 300 goals in that 10 year span.  That means at 40 years old, he'll only be 70 goals away from breaking Gretzky's goal-scoring record.  Does anybody doubt he'd stick around in the NHL, for as long as it takes, to score 70 goals? 

 

I don't think he'll have to.  I personally think he'll break the record before he turns 41.  And I personally think he'll be the first player in NHL history to get to 900 goals.  We'll see if I'm right.  :)

Edited by duck123

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With 33 goals this season right now, Ovechkin is currently 337 goals away from breaking Gretzky's ultimate goal-scoring record.  Pretty remarkable, huh  Can he do it?  Sure, why not?  Let's put it this way, Selanne had 232 goals with the Duck's after rejoining them at age 35.  And those 232 goals included 9 goals his last season with the Duck's-and 12 goals the season before that.   

Ovechkin is 31 years old.  If Selanne can score 232 goals from age 35 until retirement, then why can't Ovechkin score 337 goals from age 32 until retirement?  (Will be 32 at start of next season.)  Ovechkin is likely to score "at least" 2 more goals before the regular season is done this year.  That means he would obviously be only 335 goals away from breaking the ultimate goal-scoring records.

And you know what is interesting?  He would only need to average 35 goals for the next 9.5 seasons and he would break the record.  If anybody can score 35 goals at age 41 years old, it is Ovechkin. 

Has he said in the past he does not want to play in his 40's?  I think somebody else mentioned that once.  But people change.  I think Selanne said the same thing early in his career.  Then he ended up playing until age 44.  Trust me.  If Ovechkin is age 38 and has a realistic chance of breaking the ultimate record, I think his competitive nature will take over and he will stay in the league as long as it takes to break the record. 

In fact, if he can stay healthy and break the record at 41 years old, I would not be surprised at all for him to be so happy he broke the record that he is inspired to keep only playing after that, into his mid-40's, like Jaromír Jágr.  Jagr has 15 goals this season and 27 assists.  And I think he wants to keep playing, right?  Oh, and Jagr is 45 years old, 14 years older than Ovechkin right now. 

I am making the bold prediction that Ovechkin will be the first player ever to score 900 or more goals in his career.  And you never know.  If he keeps playing as long as Jagr, he might be the first to 1,000!

When I first made this post in 2014, breaking Gretzky's goal-scoring record might have sounded crazy to some.   Now, not so crazy, huh? 

Will he break the record?  As always, we shall see!  :)

Edited by duck123
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It is certainly possible, but Ovechkin plays a more rough and tumble game than Selanne or Gretzky.  The toll of those hits add up.  Ovie can still blow up an opponent with a body check, and he does so on a fairly regular basis. Ovechkin is still too far away to say he can break the record with any certainty.  Heck, Jagr might stay around until he's 56.  

Edited by Fowl

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Along with seeing the Ducks hopefully win the Cup this next season, looking forward to see how many goals Ovechkin scores this upcoming season.  Might go a long way in seeing how likely it will be that he can break Gretzky's all-time goal scoring record or not.  Only 337 goals away!

Edited by duck123

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On 7/13/2017 at 6:53 AM, duck123 said:

Along with seeing the Ducks hopefully win the Cup this next season, looking forward to see how many goals Ovechkin scores this upcoming season.  Might go a long way in seeing how likely it will be that he can break Gretzky's all-time goal scoring record or not.  Only 337 goals away!

Ovechkin could certainly be the greatest scorer to never win a championship 

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22 hours ago, Fowl said:

Ovechkin could certainly be the greatest scorer to never win a championship 

Ha.  True.  It's all about the team around him too.  For instance, Wayne Gretzky was obviously an awesome player.  But, as awesome as he was, he never won a championship with The Kings.  The Kings were very comparable to the Washington Capitals Ovechkin plays on.  Very talented.  Very offensive.  Never won Cup with Gretzky.  When he was with the Oilers, he won 4.  Why?  Because, the Oilers just had the type of team built to win the Cup at that time, with players like Messier.   If Ovechkin was on the Penguins team the last 2 years, or on the Chicago teams when they won their most recent 3, he would have won.  Has a lot more to do than just one player.  Has to do with the system the team plays.  Who is running the team, etc.  Maybe we see Ovechkin get traded one day to a team like Detroit and see him win the Cup there.  We shall see. 

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I still say nah. It would be hilarious for ~the almighty~ Gretzky's record to get broken by a sasquach who will never make it to the eastern conference finals though. 

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What's amazing is that Jaromir Jagr has 765 goals, which is only 129 goals less than Gretzky had.  If he had not taken away so many years from the NHL to play overseas, he might be able to catch Gretzky's record if he were to play this season. 

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