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nieder

McDavid

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Is it a given that the cap will rise every year? Because in the article they sure make it seem that way. I don't get the use of it if it goes up every year. If it does come down that would be too funny.

Draisaitl isn't gonna sign for scraps. He gets 10 mil in the open market easily.

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Absolutely not a given that the cap will rise every year. There's a five percent escalator that the PA can choose to approve among other things.

Friedman's no dummy, they'll get primo years of McDavid's career by going max term and mad money, but if they were to sign Draisaitl for 8-10m per as well, that would be a delicious way to handcuff the Oilers. Sure, they can score, but can they play on the blue line and goal at the same time?

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Ha! I thought Toews and Kopitars was funny. Thanks Edmonton, you never disappoint. 

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Chicago looks screwed because of their top two contracts. Then Edmonton signs the most lucrative contract to date. Love how that makes sense. I hope that screws them for another 10 years. 

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3 hours ago, DucksFan_08 said:

Is it a given that the cap will rise every year? Because in the article they sure make it seem that way. I don't get the use of it if it goes up every year. If it does come down that would be too funny.

Draisaitl isn't gonna sign for scraps. He gets 10 mil in the open market easily.

I don't think it's going to rise as much going forward as it did since the 2005 lockout. I'm pretty sure the salary cap in 2006 was $39M, which seems insane now. So basically the cap went up $34M in 10 seasons. I'm not so sure we see that same kind of rise over the next decade, though I guess the Canadian dollar could play a role in that.

Note there's also the issue with the cap escalator that the players vote on. The players haven't been getting the full value of their contracts the last few seasons because hockey revenues haven't been high enough. So they probably don't want to keep escalating the cap that way as they will just end up paying more in escrow.

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6 hours ago, nieder said:

Multiple reports out there that McDavid is about to sign an 8 year deal with a $13.25M!!!!! cap hit.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/connor-mcdavids-new-contract-extension-makes-sense-everyone/

God I hope this handcuffs them hard.

I have this weird feeling that the $13.25M figure is a smoke screen, and that he'll actually come in around $11.5M AAV. Then everyone will fall all over themselves praising McDavid for taking less than what he's worth and being such a great teammate, as well as praising the Edmonton brass for getting such an incredible bargain on the greatest player in the world, blah blah blah. It's also hard to envision his cap hit being ~$3M more per season than any other player in the NHL.

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59 minutes ago, dtsdlaw said:

I have this weird feeling that the $13.25M figure is a smoke screen, and that he'll actually come in around $11.5M AAV. Then everyone will fall all over themselves praising McDavid for taking less than what he's worth and being such a great teammate, as well as praising the Edmonton brass for getting such an incredible bargain on the greatest player in the world, blah blah blah. It's also hard to envision his cap hit being ~$3M more per season than any other player in the NHL.

From the standpoint of a budget team, which bless the Samuelis spending of the last couple years, the Ducks still are, it's hard to envision that much. From the standpoint of an established franchise fallen on hard times for a couple of decades, which is raking in the revenue now that they've got their chosen one, I could see 13m for term. Last thing the Oilers need is another superstar demanding a trade out of town and another decade in the doldrums. No better way to keep that arena packed than make McDavid a lock for the next decade. 

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In a few years they will be getting a # 1 draft pick ( again ) because they will have difficulty winning games - they will start to lose 7 to 6 and 8 to 7. Great games to watch but not so much for playoffs and winning the Cup. IMHO

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Question: McDavid has a year left on his ELC but Draisaitl's contract is now expired and he needs a new one immediately. Why would Edmonton sign McDavid to an obscene extension before locking in Draisaitl?  If they do McDavid first, it's just going to increase Draisaitl's asking price and make him harder to sign.

This rumor doesn't make any sense to me.

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2 hours ago, dtsdlaw said:

Question: McDavid has a year left on his ELC but Draisaitl's contract is now expired and he needs a new one immediately. Why would Edmonton sign McDavid to an obscene extension before locking in Draisaitl?  If they do McDavid first, it's just going to increase Draisaitl's asking price and make him harder to sign.

This rumor doesn't make any sense to me.

Rumor has it that the supposed McD contract will open the flood gates for a Draisaitl offer sheet. TSN mentioned that his contract will be 17.5% of the Oilers cap. The same as Crosby after his second season who hit the Pens for 17.5%. Both won the Hart, Ted Lindsey, and Art Ross after their second season. So there is a precedence for this insane contract. 

Hope Las Vegas offer sheets the hell out of Draisaitl. I'll vicariously get my Penner retribution through that. 

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2 hours ago, dtsdlaw said:

Question: McDavid has a year left on his ELC but Draisaitl's contract is now expired and he needs a new one immediately. Why would Edmonton sign McDavid to an obscene extension before locking in Draisaitl?  If they do McDavid first, it's just going to increase Draisaitl's asking price and make him harder to sign.

This rumor doesn't make any sense to me.

I also thought about that. I believe if the oilers take care of draisaitl's contract first I think they might lock him up at 7.5-8 mil. If the rumor is true I don't see that happening. After the playoffs he had (he can thank us for that :lol:) no way the difference between those two should be 5 or 6 mil. Draisaitl would be dumb not to ask for at least 9 or 10 mil.

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2 hours ago, poum said:

Rumor has it that the supposed McD contract will open the flood gates for a Draisaitl offer sheet. TSN mentioned that his contract will be 17.5% of the Oilers cap. The same as Crosby after his second season who hit the Pens for 17.5%. Both won the Hart, Ted Lindsey, and Art Ross after their second season. So there is a precedence for this insane contract. 

Hope Las Vegas offer sheets the hell out of Draisaitl. I'll vicariously get my Penner retribution through that. 

Well, well, well, that would be a fine piece of irony. But for what they would offer sheet Draisaitl in terms of numbers, they'd better be willing to cough up some serious compensation. First and second round pick, minimum, and that's for a four million average contract. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offer_sheet#Compensation

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2 hours ago, Drake12 said:

Well, well, well, that would be a fine piece of irony. But for what they would offer sheet Draisaitl in terms of numbers, they'd better be willing to cough up some serious compensation. First and second round pick, minimum, and that's for a four million average contract. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offer_sheet#Compensation

We'd be looking at 4 1st rounders. If there's one team that knows how to suck after 10 years of getting 1st overall picks it's Edmonton so I wouldn't worry about them getting many picks :) Is one team willing to sacrifice those though? Don't think so.

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8 hours ago, DucksFan_08 said:

I also thought about that. I believe if the oilers take care of draisaitl's contract first I think they might lock him up at 7.5-8 mil. If the rumor is true I don't see that happening. After the playoffs he had (he can thank us for that :lol:) no way the difference between those two should be 5 or 6 mil. Draisaitl would be dumb not to ask for at least 9 or 10 mil.

Sportsnet was reporting Draisaitl is looking at around $10M per season, which would make him a top-5 paid player in the league next season. Seems insane.

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34 minutes ago, nieder said:

Sportsnet was reporting Draisaitl is looking at around $10M per season, which would make him a top-5 paid player in the league next season. Seems insane.

If he keeps the price down, maybe Nashville or Carolina will pounce on him. Oh, how I don't want that.

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1 hour ago, nieder said:

Sportsnet was reporting Draisaitl is looking at around $10M per season, which would make him a top-5 paid player in the league next season. Seems insane.

Kid is good. But that is looney.

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1 hour ago, nieder said:

Sportsnet was reporting Draisaitl is looking at around $10M per season, which would make him a top-5 paid player in the league next season. Seems insane.

If he gets more than $6.5M I'll eat my shoe.

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1 hour ago, dtsdlaw said:

If he gets more than $6.5M I'll eat my shoe.

Would you like that in a nice mushroom-red wine reduction sauce? Perhaps a vodka cream sauce is more to your liking?

He'll be making Kesler money at least. McDavid gets injured, no Draisaitl, their depth down the middle is the Nuge and nothing else. That, and I have the feeling Peter Chiarelli and Katz want to wrap up as much of his UFA years as they can get. Five to six year deal, 7-8 m per.

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these pending oiler contracts have already had repercussions.  eberle was traded to reduce salary

and pouliot is on waivers with a buyout to follow.  this is the same issue that the

blackhawks have had for the last six years. 

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2 minutes ago, Drake12 said:

Would you like that in a nice mushroom-red wine reduction sauce? Perhaps a vodka cream sauce is more to your liking?

He'll be making Kesler money at least. McDavid gets injured, no Draisaitl, their depth down the middle is the Nuge and nothing else. That, and I have the feeling Peter Chiarelli and Katz want to wrap up as much of his UFA years as they can get. Five to six year deal, 7-8 m per.

I just don't see it. Guys don't get paid that much coming off their ELCs unless they are in a different stratosphere. Draisaitl is not. He has a 51 point season and a 77 point season on his resume.That's very good, but not otherworldly. Stamkos got his $7.5M coming off his ELC after 95 and 91 point seasons as a 19 and 20-year-old. Crosby got his $8.7M coming off his ELC after scoring 102 and 120 points as an 18 and 19-year-old. If you want to break the bank coming off your ELC, you better be cruising past the point per game mark (like McDavid).

Draisaitl's deal is more likely going to be closer to the deals given to Monahan, McKinnon, Seguin, etc. These players have no arbitration rights coming off their ELCs and, even though everyone talks about offer sheets all the time, no one is actually going to offer sheet them because, by age 21, they have proven jack diddly squat in terms of their longevity, maturity, and eliteness.

Edmonton also has to keep their salary structure intact. They're going to pay McDavid obscene money, but they still have to manage the rest of the roster.  Pouliot's buy-out is step one, and I think they move RNH this summer or next as step two. Then they're going to have to either move or buy-out one of Lucic or Sekera within the next couple of seasons to make way for some of their RFAs (Nurse, Strome) to get raises and to afford McDavid's new contract in 2018-19.  But overall the Oilers are not going to be in terrible shape.

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While I agree it's a small sample size I can't imagine draisaitl signing for less than 7 mil, let alone with the rumored contract for mcdavid. If he does good for edmonton. 

Crosby and stamkos signed their deals a long time ago. The times they are a changin'.

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I'd look more at MacKinnon, Monahan and Gaudreau than Seguin on this one. Seguin's in the second to last year of his contract, and things have changed since he signed his contract four years ago. The other three all signed their contracts prior to last season and are roughly in the same age range as Draisaitl is now. Here's what I see leading up to their current contracts.

MacKinnon-#1 pick, ELC at 18 for max, currently 21; 7 yrs, 6.3m per, modified NTC last three years

2013-2014: 82 GP, 24/39 for 63 pts      2014-2015: 64 GP, 14/24 for 38 pts      2015-2016 82 GP, 21/31 for 52 pts

Monahan-#6 pick, ELC at 18 for max, currently 22; 7 yrs, 6.375 per, modified NTC last three years, 3.5m signing bonus kicks in when NTC does

2013-2014: 75 GP, 22/12 for 34 pts     2014-2015: 81 GP, 31/31 for 62 pts     2015-2016: 81 GP 27/36 for 63 pts

Gaudreau-#104 pick, ELC at 21 for max, currently 23; 6 yrs, 6.75 per, modified NTC last year, 3m signing bonus 2016-17, 3.5 m bonus 2020-21

2014-2015: 80 GP, 24/40 for 64 pts     2015-2016: 79 GP, 30/48 for 78 pts

Drat-#3 pick, ELC at 18 for max, currently 21; RFA

2014-2015: 37 GP, 2/7 for 9 pts (sent to WHL to not burn FA yr)   2015-2016: 72 GP, 19/32 for 51 pts   2016-2017: 82 GP, 29/48 for 77 pts+13 GP playoffs, 6/10 for 16 pts

MacKinnon and Monahan are centers, both first round picks, both with production at 0.67 PPG. Gaudreau is a winger at 0.89 PPG. Drat, if you consider all three years of his ELC, is a 0.71 PPG player. If you look closely at the last two seasons only (as a Gaudreau-specific comparison), he's a 0.83 PPG player, and a 1.23 PPG player in the playoffs. His production the last two years is more indicative of his skill set, even with the McDavid effect in full play. Say his production drops to 0.75 PPG, while still being one the harder centers in the west to play against-as we well know. He's still well ahead of MacKinnon and Monahan in terms of effectiveness with the puck. And, his playoffs performance will be the tipper that pushes him beyond their contracts to the 7m mark. If his ask is 9-10, 7-8 is a reasonable come down for term in the sense of compromise. Some of the numbers bandied about by the Edmonton Journal and Sportsnet for a final contract are as high as 9, hehehe.

His durability at the NHL level is unproven, and Edmonton does need to watch it when it comes to cap space after this season, with Sekera and Lucic on the books especially. But I don't see how they could afford to lose the on ice production that Drat brings early (UFA) or because they were in his mind and Liut's, cheap (#traderequest). Yaks, Hall and Eberle are gone, RNH is nebulous.... He's the Malkin to McDavid's Crosby, better at some aspects and damned close in others, but well overshadowed by The One.   

And for some random trivia, Ron Tugnutt?! There's a name I haven't heard in a long time.

 

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1 hour ago, Drake12 said:

I'd look more at MacKinnon, Monahan and Gaudreau than Seguin on this one. Seguin's in the second to last year of his contract, and things have changed since he signed his contract four years ago. The other three all signed their contracts prior to last season and are roughly in the same age range as Draisaitl is now. Here's what I see leading up to their current contracts.

It's really just the bolded part of your first paragraph where you and I probably disagree the most. I don't think salaries have gone up nearly as much as people think they have. Take Steven Stamkos as an example.  Last summer everyone was talking about how Stammer was going to be the newest $10M man and how it was going to crush the Lightning's cap to have him for that number. Then when the dust finally settled, he's in at $8.5M AAV, below Crosby and Malkin. Kane and Toews signed their $10.5M AAV deals in July 2014, and no one has surpassed them since then (McDavid obviously will next season, which is a full four years later), and their contracts look worse and worse with every passing season. I really think that GMs have seen what happens when you concentrate too much money in one or two players and so they're doing everything they can to avoid overpaying, even as HHR increases and the overall cap continues to climb.  

Also, if you look at contracts over the past several years, the only guys who have really been paid obscene amounts and set new standards for contracts are guys who have unrestricted free agency coming (think Kopitar, Benn, Burns), which they could use as a bargaining chip in negotiations to force more money and term from GMs. In those cases, losing the team's #1 player to UFA would devastate the franchise. But not only does Draisaitl not have UFA coming, he's also living in the shadow of McJesus, meaning that if he sits out due to a contract dispute, the team still rolls on with the reigning Hart trophy winner as its #1C and RNH as its #2C. He has almost no leverage here, so he'll be offered maximum around the top end of what you've discussed in your post for those others players (btw, Taylor Hall would also be a good comparable. #1 pick, 0.82 ppg between ages 18-20, $6M x 7yrs). Without any leverage, I think there's no chance he gets a $1M bump over similarly situated players. Not unless Chiarelli is a fool.

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2 hours ago, Drake12 said:

And for some random trivia, Ron Tugnutt?! There's a name I haven't heard in a long time.

 

Dream killer.

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On 6/29/2017 at 3:02 PM, dtsdlaw said:

It's really just the bolded part of your first paragraph where you and I probably disagree the most. I don't think salaries have gone up nearly as much as people think they have. Take Steven Stamkos as an example.  Last summer everyone was talking about how Stammer was going to be the newest $10M man and how it was going to crush the Lightning's cap to have him for that number. Then when the dust finally settled, he's in at $8.5M AAV, below Crosby and Malkin. Kane and Toews signed their $10.5M AAV deals in July 2014, and no one has surpassed them since then (McDavid obviously will next season, which is a full four years later), and their contracts look worse and worse with every passing season. I really think that GMs have seen what happens when you concentrate too much money in one or two players and so they're doing everything they can to avoid overpaying, even as HHR increases and the overall cap continues to climb.  

Also, if you look at contracts over the past several years, the only guys who have really been paid obscene amounts and set new standards for contracts are guys who have unrestricted free agency coming (think Kopitar, Benn, Burns), which they could use as a bargaining chip in negotiations to force more money and term from GMs. In those cases, losing the team's #1 player to UFA would devastate the franchise. But not only does Draisaitl not have UFA coming, he's also living in the shadow of McJesus, meaning that if he sits out due to a contract dispute, the team still rolls on with the reigning Hart trophy winner as its #1C and RNH as its #2C. He has almost no leverage here, so he'll be offered maximum around the top end of what you've discussed in your post for those others players (btw, Taylor Hall would also be a good comparable. #1 pick, 0.82 ppg between ages 18-20, $6M x 7yrs). Without any leverage, I think there's no chance he gets a $1M bump over similarly situated players. Not unless Chiarelli is a fool.

I'll agree with you on that. However, this is Peter Chiarelli we're talking about and an Oilers organization in the throes of ecstasy after their first playoff win in a decade and the near defeat of the big, bad, meanie-bo-beanie Ducks. He signed Kassian to a three-year 5.85m contract this offseason, and signed Lucic to that whopper of a seven-year, 42m deal with lots of movement restrictions. (Similar to RNH.) He also just resigned Kris Russell to a four-year, 16m contract with movement restrictions. I don't believe his cap management skills have improved since Boston, and part of the reason he was in that bind there was by signing Lucic to another 6m/per contract in Boston. He also traded Kessel to Toronto for what would become Tyler Seguin, Dougie Hamilton and a second rounder who I can never remember. Constant bumping against the salary cap in Boston, along with Kessel blooming in Toronto, same for Seguin in Dallas is what I believe did Chiarelli out of the Bruins' GM slot. He also has a loyalty to aging veterans who aren't pulling their weight, see Kelly, Chris. 

With regard to leverage, I think Draisaitl has more than everyone seems to believe, but certainly not the firepower of a UFA or a generational superstar. RNH's production is on the decline comparatively, with injuries limiting him two seasons ago, and not doing much better this year with a full season under his belt. After some thought, I'm revising my estimation to 7m-7.5m/per for Drat on this upcoming contract.

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it could be higher, but Connor thought that so the team would be competitve... really nice from Connor, not take 13,25 Mio and only 12,5....

maybe Draisaitl also only take 12,5...

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Somebody should offer sheet Draisaitl just to force Edmonton into another insane contract.  

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