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Are The Ducks Playoff Bound?

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1 hour ago, Spike1981 said:

Pats have Brady&Belichick...thats the only reason they are strong, we will watch after they.. and look at Detroit, how long they were strong? and now? because they ride too long with Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Fedorov, Yzerman, Zetterberg...

we ride with Getzlaf/Perry, thats the only reason we are in the last 10 years a playoff-team... but they have both maybe 3-4 years left on this level, Perry decreased already...I know, its a strange thing cheering for lose, but some time every team needs some restart...

We don't have many UFAs/RFAs this summer. trade they who doesn't want to sign (as Silver for a 1st rounder, so we can pick 2 in first 31). now you are so close for a top 5 Pick, be smart and take the opportunity! again, if we reach the playoffs, we will play against a divisional winner....

next season we bounce back with an young elite player, we will be stronger!!!

Nice points. I just see all the talent we have in our system at the forward level, waiting for the chance to play. For instance, take Max Comtois. He made our team this past year, but was injured.  Eventually got sent back to Junior team. He was named CHL player of the week this past week, with 9 goals and 7 assists in only 4 games! Plus, he was the captain of the Canadian team when they played in the world juniors this year.  And you know what? He played with a separated shoulder.  He took 2 weeks off after the juniors, and now is lighting up the scoring sheet. He was drafted in 2017 and just turned 20 this past January.  If this was his draft year, many would likely say he is a top 3 pick.  So what that he's 2 years older than people in this years draft? If he would be a top 3 pick in this years draft, were this his draft year, then at 20 years old we have a very good prospect.  And besides him, we have Jones, Terry, Steel, Lundestrom, etc. We have a good system of players ready to make an impact in the near future. Even 19-year-old Lundestrom made our big club this year, before being sent to a team in Sweden. Don't get me wrong. I would love to have a top 2 pick in this years draft. But having players like Comtois, Steel, Jones, Terry, Lundestrom, etc., in our system makes be believe we can be good for years to come--regardless of if we get a top pick in this year's draft or not. I personally hope we keep winning and make the playoffs.  Once we get there, anything can happen. Let's Go Ducks!!!!

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37 minutes ago, duck123 said:

 But having players like Comtois, Steel, Jones, Terry, Lundestrom, etc., in our system makes be believe we can be good for years to come--regardless of if we get a top pick in this year's draft or not. I personally hope we keep winning and make the playoffs.  Once we get there, anything can happen. Let's Go Ducks!!!!

I am watching closely Lundestrom. So far I am not impressed with his performance. Let's hope he'll be more productive as he gets older.

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2 minutes ago, FanSince1993 said:

I am watching closely Lundestrom. So far I am not impressed with his performance. Let's hope he'll be more productive as he gets older.

I think Lundestrom can possibly take over for Kesler one day.  Like Kesler, Lundestrom may not be the most productive player on our team. But if he can be a shutdown center, maybe that's all we would need him to be. With that said, it would be great if he does end up being more productive in the long run-like you mentioned. She shall see...

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The Western Conference has been weird this season. It feels like no one team doesn't have a shot at the playoffs. Those at the bottom are a good stretch of games away from being in and those in a playoff spot are just a bad stretch of games from being on the outside looking in. 

Since the firing of Carlyle, we have won 3 of 4. They seem to be playing better and have new life.

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51 minutes ago, FanSince1993 said:

I am watching closely Lundestrom. So far I am not impressed with his performance. Let's hope he'll be more productive as he gets older.

He only recently turned 19. The fact that he got in 15 NHL games (more than Steel, Terry, Comtois) and beat out more experienced AHL players are positive signs. He looked better and more poised than any other rookie to me. Of course, the big question with him, as with most players, is does he have enough offensive ability to produce? Probably going to be another year or two before we really start seeing what he can do at the pro level. For being drafted 23rd overall, I’d say he’s ahead of the curve.

 

Edited by BombaysTripleDeke
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19 hours ago, RobD360 said:

The same assistants people have been complaining about though who are as they say incompetent. But yeah. We’ll see. Who knows maybe the RC effect also affected them? 

I've been probably the biggest guy voicing my concerns over the assistants...but...honestly, I'm willing to take it back. It's possible this has all been their direction from RC and now they feel more free to do what they feel is right.

3 hours ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

If only the West wasn’t a complete joke so that a team with a -51 goal differential is only 3 points out of a playoffs spot. 

It's ridiculous lol but it's funny 'cause yeah we've gained ground on the 2nd wild card spot...but...we've haven't gained ANY ground in the standings. I'll be more excited when/if we get to the #9 spot and we're 3 or less points out.

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3 hours ago, duck123 said:

Comtois, Steel, Jones, Terry, Lundestrom, etc.

Comtois looked at best and was captain at JWC, thats a good sign. I bet on him with my friend, he must have more career points then Terry... but this season isn't good for me, Terry has still max. 22 games, Comtois 0...

Steel/Terry till now they felt a little lost in the NHL.

Jones looked okay, Lundestrom nice technic, but needs time.

2-3 of these are good players, but you don't win with good players, you need elite players (Pitts has Crosby/Malkin, Chi has Kane/Toews, Wsh has Ovechkin)... they have all minimum 1 elite player. we now have Getzy for now, but we need also for the future.

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1 hour ago, Jasoaks said:

I've been probably the biggest guy voicing my concerns over the assistants...but...honestly, I'm willing to take it back. It's possible this has all been their direction from RC and now they feel more free to do what they feel is right.

It's ridiculous lol but it's funny 'cause yeah we've gained ground on the 2nd wild card spot...but...we've haven't gained ANY ground in the standings. I'll be more excited when/if we get to the #9 spot and we're 3 or less points out.

If you look at the 2 wildcards and everyone sitting outside of a playoff spot, everyone but Dallas and Chicago haven't had a great last 10 games. If we keep playing the way we have the last 4 games, we will start passing people up. 

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i think tanking to get the top 2 picks is... a form of counting chickens before they've hatched.  business wise, they could have already seen that they'll lose too much of the local fans to risk betting that much against the inherent risk of an untried NHL rookie.  the value they've created in their stable of shiny AHLers might be far and away above that of either the first or second picks (which we'll get screwed out of anyway, statistically).

i think it would be pretty good for a GM to coach through a playoff series.  Maybe I'm fooling myself, but it seems like BM is learning quite a bit about the limits of our players by being behind the bench these past few games.  The shifting lines and the waiver of Eaves might be... the results of informed wisdom.  Way too soon to say so with regard to where he sits during games now, but you gotta think that he'd be a better GM overall if he spent some time behind the bench during a playoff series.

aside from all that, the Kings have already made a very solid move towards tanking for a high pick by shipping Muzzin (and probably piddleing off a ton of other GMs by beefing up TMLs so much as a result).  I don't think we can beat them to the bottom without doing stuff that would incur the wrath of the league.

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On 2/18/2019 at 6:54 PM, ZTHER said:

ZERO CHANCE particularly if Chicago and Los Angeles land in the lottery.

 

On 2/19/2019 at 0:11 PM, perry_mvp said:

Here is a video from last years lottery. Sorry no preview just a link:

https://www.nhl.com/coyotes/video/inside-the-draft-lottery-drawing/t-277437086/c-60176003?q=draft+lottery

Ian, this is pretty legit.

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for the books, we were once one point away from the second draft pick.... I'm afraid we'll mourn that.

still think, play for win is an mistake this season.

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Someone brought up that tanking doesn't = guaranteed success later. I started to try and gather the stats and info necessary to either enforce not enforce this...but...it's gonna take a lot of analyzing haha. but i do think there is something there.

I mean, take the 2 teams that have won the cup 3x since the lock out...Chicago and Pittsburgh. Both teams had many, consecutive horrible seasons and Chicago got a top 5 pick 3x before turning it around and Pittsburgh got 4. Pittsburgh got the cup 4 years after their Crosby pick. But 7 years after that they got their next 2. So 3 cups in 11 years since picking Crosby.

Chicago had their 3 cups basically 3-8 years after their last top 5 pick. And cups aside, these teams were dominant in regular season/playoffs.

But there are the other sides...Edmonton has 6 top-5 picks in the last 8 years...1 playoff appearance to show for it in 8 years. Jury is still out on how successful they will be with McDavid. But if they follow the Pitts/Chicago model...they *should* win their cup this season or next season...or should have won it 4 years ago... lol lol lol lol

And there is Washington. 3 top-5 picks 2004 - 2007. No cup, no conference finals, no finals appearance till 11 YEARS after their last top-5 pick.

And more teams like Edmonton...Florida, Carolina (speaking of after their 2006 cup), St. Louis, Buffalo, Columbus, Colorado (although Colorado is looking like they're about to hit Pittsburgh/Chicago status...), same with Toronto...looks like they are about to hit their stride, too.

And then you have dominant, competitive teams that have had 1 or LESS since 2003...Anaheim, San Jose, Vegas (I hesitate to put them since they are such a special case), Detroit (who have obviously fallen off the deep end), Nashville...I'd add in Tampa Bay even though they've had 2. They've done a lot without many high picks. Los Angeles...I mean, 2 cups in 4 years with only having 1 top-5 pick in the last 14 years isn't something to scoff at.

And I'm sure there is more to analyze...but...i mean...to me this shows tanking doesn't mean success. It CAN if you manage it well. It's no guarantee and it's possible to stay competitive without it.

But we'll see...curious to see how San Jose does after this season. And see how long it takes Detroit to get back up. Neither team has had a top-5 pick in...I don't know how long lol also curious to see how we do...and see how Nashville continues...

EDIT: you also need to take into account predicted "generational talent" ... Fluery, Ovechkin, Crosby, McDavid, Matthews, Laine, Eichel...I don't remember what the talk was on Kane or Stamkos or Tavares...or others.

Edited by Jasoaks
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9 hours ago, Spike1981 said:

for the books, we were once one point away from the second draft pick.... I'm afraid we'll mourn that.

still think, play for win is an mistake this season.

Ducks may finish this season strong with a Draft Pick in the Top ten Book and Put Big Money on it.

DuckPride 4ever

MooseDuck

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1 hour ago, Jasoaks said:

Someone brought up that tanking doesn't = guaranteed success later. I started to try and gather the stats and info necessary to either enforce not enforce this...but...it's gonna take a lot of analyzing haha. but i do think there is something there.

I mean, take the 2 teams that have won the cup 3x since the lock out...Chicago and Pittsburgh. Both teams had many, consecutive horrible seasons and Chicago got a top 5 pick 3x before turning it around and Pittsburgh got 4. Pittsburgh got the cup 4 years after their Crosby pick. But 7 years after that they got their next 2. So 3 cups in 11 years since picking Crosby.

Chicago had their 3 cups basically 3-8 years after their last top 5 pick. And cups aside, these teams were dominant in regular season/playoffs.

But there are the other sides...Edmonton has 6 top-5 picks in the last 8 years...1 playoff appearance to show for it in 8 years. Jury is still out on how successful they will be with McDavid. But if they follow the Pitts/Chicago model...they *should* win their cup this season or next season...or should have won it 4 years ago... lol lol lol lol

And there is Washington. 3 top-5 picks 2004 - 2007. No cup, no conference finals, no finals appearance till 11 YEARS after their last top-5 pick.

And more teams like Edmonton...Florida, Carolina (speaking of after their 2006 cup), St. Louis, Buffalo, Columbus, Colorado (although Colorado is looking like they're about to hit Pittsburgh/Chicago status...), same with Toronto...looks like they are about to hit their stride, too.

And then you have dominant, competitive teams that have had 1 or LESS since 2003...Anaheim, San Jose, Vegas (I hesitate to put them since they are such a special case), Detroit (who have obviously fallen off the deep end), Nashville...I'd add in Tampa Bay even though they've had 2. They've done a lot without many high picks. Los Angeles...I mean, 2 cups in 4 years with only having 1 top-5 pick in the last 14 years isn't something to scoff at.

And I'm sure there is more to analyze...but...i mean...to me this shows tanking doesn't mean success. It CAN if you manage it well. It's no guarantee and it's possible to stay competitive without it.

But we'll see...curious to see how San Jose does after this season. And see how long it takes Detroit to get back up. Neither team has had a top-5 pick in...I don't know how long lol also curious to see how we do...and see how Nashville continues...

EDIT: you also need to take into account predicted "generational talent" ... Fluery, Ovechkin, Crosby, McDavid, Matthews, Laine, Eichel...I don't remember what the talk was on Kane or Stamkos or Tavares...or others.

Bah! My info was bad on LA. They've had 2 top-5 picks...but after they got Doughty...they won a cup 4 years later...so there seems to be this 3-4 years after a team's top-5 pick to be in getting cup mood.

With this in mind...looking at teams that have had 2 or more top-5 picks from 2003 - 2014 ('cause that would mean they should have won a cup by now), these teams haven't won a cup: Florida, Buffalo, Edmonton, Islanders, Carolina (since 2006), Colorado, Montreal, Tampa Bay, Arizona, St. Louis, Winnipeg...add in New Jersey and Vancouver if you include the next 4 drafts.

These teams won a cup since 2006 (starting there 'cause I don't grab draft pick info from before 2003 lol) with 1 or less a top-5 pick selection at one point: Detroit, Anaheim

And these teams won a cup since 2006 with having 2 or more top-5 picks: Carolina, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Boston, LA, Washington. 11 cups won between them. 11 cups for 6 teams in the past 13 seasons won by teams that had 2 or more top-5 picks.

But that's still not a case for tanking if you ask me. As more teams have had 2 or more top-5 picks and NOT won a cup than teams that have.

Althooooough...that's also 6 teams compared to the 2 teams that have won a cup withOUT that tanking...soooo...

In conclusion. If you get a top-5 pick...might be good to get 2...and have good development and management of it lol

Edited by Jasoaks
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TL;DR my 2 very long posts lol...

A little less than 50% of the teams that have tanked to get TWO or more top-5 picks have won a cup.

85% of the cup-winning teams have had 2 ore more top-5 picks.

So, it's 50/50 if it works out. But it's WAY more likely that if you're going to win a cup you have TWO or more.

(counting draft picks since 2003; counting cup wins since 2006 because of giving time to develop the picks)

Edited by Jasoaks

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9 minutes ago, Jasoaks said:

TL;DR my 2 very long posts lol...

About 50% of the teams that have tanked to get TWO or more top-5 picks have won a cup.

85% of the cup-winning teams have had 2 ore more top-5 picks.

So, it's 50/50 if it works out. But it's WAY more likely to work out if you have TWO or more.

Just to add a little to your posts, LA, Chicago and Pittsburgh also have Norris, Hart and Selke winners. That's what their top 5 picks turned into. 

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14 minutes ago, perry_mvp said:

Just to add a little to your posts, LA, Chicago and Pittsburgh also have Norris, Hart and Selke winners. That's what their top 5 picks turned into. 

Absolutely! That definitely needs to be taken into account too

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19 minutes ago, g20topdogg said:

I just want to add that of the two teams, Detroit and Anaheim, we got Bobby Ryan at number 2 and he didn't help win the cup. 

No, but we did get help from a former #2 (Pronger) and #3 ((Niedermayer). We just didn’t draft them ourselves.

Sometimes you have to just go out and get the right players when you can’t draft them. Which is why I want to see GMBM be aggressive in the trade market.

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25 minutes ago, g20topdogg said:

I just want to add that of the two teams, Detroit and Anaheim, we got Bobby Ryan at number 2 and he didn't help win the cup. 

Correct. That's why I'ms saying 1 OR less...essentially Anaheim didn't have it.

4 minutes ago, dtsdlaw said:

No, but we did get help from a former #2 (Pronger) and #3 ((Niedermayer). We just didn’t draft them ourselves.

Sometimes you have to just go out and get the right players when you can’t draft them. Which is why I want to see GMBM be aggressive in the trade market.

Absolutely! But I was trying to investigate if TANKING makes a difference and what value it truly has. Be competitive every season and then trade for those high picks is all good in my book lol

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9 minutes ago, dtsdlaw said:

No, but we did get help from a former #2 (Pronger) and #3 ((Niedermayer). We just didn’t draft them ourselves.

Sometimes you have to just go out and get the right players when you can’t draft them. Which is why I want to see GMBM be aggressive in the trade market.

He's going to be limited to get those kinds of players unless he can dump some salary. After all the bluster of him saying he's considering asking players to waive NMC's or conduct buyouts, I still don't think he'll do anything. His biggest move to date, unless I'm forgetting something is Kesler. That was years ago.

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14 minutes ago, Jasoaks said:

Correct. That's why I'ms saying 1 OR less...essentially Anaheim didn't have it.

Absolutely! But I was trying to investigate if TANKING makes a difference and what value it truly has. Be competitive every season and then trade for those high picks is all good in my book lol

Tanking isn’t a sure thing as Buffalo and Arizona will tell you when they were both going full on battle tank for McDavid or that the Oilers can surely attest to. You also need competent organizations and a bit of luck. 

Teams are likely not going to move high draft picks, let alone picks in the top-5. It’s usually much more valuable to keep cheap talent like that than to move it, because of what you can potentially end up with. Which is why being bad is the pretty much the only way to get them.

8 minutes ago, perry_mvp said:

He's going to be limited to get those kinds of players unless he can dump some salary. After all the bluster of him saying he's considering asking players to waive NMC's or conduct buyouts, I still don't think he'll do anything. His biggest move to date, unless I'm forgetting something is Kesler. That was years ago.

Agreed. Move Henrique and Fowler, get Duchene lol!

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6 minutes ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

Tanking isn’t a sure thing as Buffalo and Arizona will tell you when they were both going full on battle tank for McDavid or that the Oilers can surely attest to. You also need competent organizations and a bit of luck. 

Teams are likely not going to move high draft picks, let alone picks in the top-5. It’s usually much more valuable to keep cheap talent like that than to move it, because of what you can potentially end up with. Which is why being bad is the pretty much the only way to get them.

Agreed. Move Henrique and Fowler, get Duchene lol!

Duchene was moved to Columbus this morning. Its in the Trade Deadline Deals thread in the NHL Talk forum

Edited by ducks07

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27 minutes ago, ducks07 said:

Duchene was moved to Columbus this morning. Its in the Trade Deadline Deals thread in the NHL Talk forum

I know. He’ll be a UFA if Columbus doesn’t sign him. It would never happen lol

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2 minutes ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

I know. He’ll be a UFA if Columbus doesn’t sign him. It would never happen lol

Him, Panarin and Bobrovsky will all be UFA...would be nice to clear out Cam and Henrique to land Duchene or Panarin, but like you said...never gonna happen.

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Here is the way I look at it.  Maybe we need to separate our team from Pre-Murray taking over as coach to the team Post-Murray taking over as coach.  Since taking over, the team has won 3 of 4 games.  And if we win tonight against the Flames, who have the best record in the Western Conference, I see no reason why we cannot compete with the best of them come playoff time. Our team has played extremely well, Post-Murray taking over as coach. And if we continue to play like we have been, Ducks have a great chance of making the playoffs and getting far.  Let's see if we make it first or not.  Let's Go Ducks!!!!

Edited by duck123

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1 minute ago, duck123 said:

Here is the way I look at it.  Maybe we need to separate our team from Pre-Murray taking over as coach to the team Post-Murray taking over as coach.  Since taking over, the team has won 3 of 4 games.  And if we win tonight against the Flames, who have the best record in the Western Conference, I see no reason why we cannot compete with the best of them come playoff time. Our team has played extremely well, Post-Murray taking over as coach. And if we continue to play like we have been, Ducks have a great chance of making the playoffs and getting far.  Let's if we make it first or not.  Let's Go Ducks!!!!

Tonight you will see what a playoff team (Calgary) vs a non-playoff team (Anaheim) looks like.

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21 minutes ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

I know. He’ll be a UFA if Columbus doesn’t sign him. It would never happen lol

Columbus might offer him a few big bags of cash to stay there. I don't think Duchene really cares about anything besides that.

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