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dtsdlaw

2020 TDL - Who stays? Who goes?

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As of today, there are two and a half weeks to go until the 2020 trade deadline. This is typically when teams start making moves, and with so many teams still jockeying for playoff positions (and likely not ready to sell off assets) it may bode well for team like the Ducks who are clearly already out of it and are more willing to deal their expiring contracts. In terms of pending UFAs and RFAs (not including current prospects), the Ducks have the following "rental" players who will be up for a contract either this summer or next summer and who I think could generate some interest around the league as we near the TDL: 

Pending UFAs (2020) - Ryan Miller, Derek Grantzlaf, Michael Del Zotto, Korbinian Holzer, Nicolas Deslauriers.

Pending RFAs (2020) - Devin Shore, Daniel Sprong

Pending UFAs (2021) - Erik Gudbranson, Carter Rowney

Pending RFAs (2021) - Nick Ritchie, Ondrej Kase, 

I'm curious which guys you think will be targeted, which guys you think GMBM will actually trade, what the return might be if they're be traded, and which guys you would absolutely be against trading.

I'm going to assume there's no "hockey deal" in the works, and that we're just looking at selling off the rentals. For me, I think MDZ gets dealt again for a late pick (5th or 6th), if for no other reason than the last team that got him at the TDL won the Cup, and some GM out there is going to think he's a lucky rabbit's foot worth a late pick. I also think there might be some interest in Deslauriers for a late round pick, as he's shown himself to be a solid 4th line team-first guy who can skate, hit, and fight and who isn't a defensive liability. Grantzlaf and Miller are both interesting players to me, as I think they could both bring back significant returns - something like a 2nd + a prospect for Miller and a conditional 3rd for Grant (becoming a 2nd if a team achieves or re-signs him). But the team might also want to keep both guys around for next year, so I could see GMBM offering contract extensions rather than trading them. I'd be open to trading either guy, but would also be happy if we just kept them and re-signed them for 2020-21.

The two guys who I really hope GMBM doesn't trade are Guddy and Kase. Although, looking around the league at what some of the contenders need, I think both guys could bring back some significant pieces. I'm not sure the return on ether guy is worth what they bring to the Ducks though, so I really hope GMBM keeps both guys unless an offer knocks his socks off.

As for Shore, Sprong and Ritchie, I'm not sure what to make of those guys. My gut tells me there is no market for Shore and GMBM will simply let him walk this summer by not giving him a qualifying offer (what a sad waste of Cogs that would turn out to be...). Spronger, I have no idea what the organization wants from this guy. I'd almost rather see him traded just to give him a chance at the NHL level with a team that clearly wants him. That's probably more like a summer trade though. And then there's Nick Ritchie. He's a big body that can go to the net, he plays with an edge, and he has some decent hands... I could see a team really wanting to grab him for a playoff run. I'm admittedly not a big Ritchie fan, but I do think his stock has climbed recently due to some improved play this season (even in spite of the injury), especially given what similar guys like Maroon and Reaves have brought to their teams as bottom-6ers over the past couple of playoffs. We also have lots of LWs, so if he is moved then the Ducks would have no problem sliding Shore or (preferably) Comtois right back into the lineup in his spot, or the team could just bring Lundestrom back up and slide Rico to LW again for the season ending tank stretch run.

So what do you all think? Who stays and who goes?

 

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1 hour ago, dtsdlaw said:

As of today, there are two and a half weeks to go until the 2020 trade deadline. This is typically when teams start making moves, and with so many teams still jockeying for playoff positions (and likely not ready to sell off assets) it may bode well for team like the Ducks who are clearly already out of it and are more willing to deal their expiring contracts. In terms of pending UFAs and RFAs (not including current prospects), the Ducks have the following "rental" players who will be up for a contract either this summer or next summer and who I think could generate some interest around the league as we near the TDL: 

Pending UFAs (2020) - Ryan Miller, Derek Grantzlaf, Michael Del Zotto, Korbinian Holzer, Nicolas Deslauriers.

Pending RFAs (2020) - Devin Shore, Daniel Sprong

Pending UFAs (2021) - Erik Gudbranson, Carter Rowney

Pending RFAs (2021) - Nick Ritchie, Ondrej Kase, 

I'm curious which guys you think will be targeted, which guys you think GMBM will actually trade, what the return might be if they're be traded, and which guys you would absolutely be against trading.

I'm going to assume there's no "hockey deal" in the works, and that we're just looking at selling off the rentals. For me, I think MDZ gets dealt again for a late pick (5th or 6th), if for no other reason than the last team that got him at the TDL won the Cup, and some GM out there is going to think he's a lucky rabbit's foot worth a late pick. I also think there might be some interest in Deslauriers for a late round pick, as he's shown himself to be a solid 4th line team-first guy who can skate, hit, and fight and who isn't a defensive liability. Grantzlaf and Miller are both interesting players to me, as I think they could both bring back significant returns - something like a 2nd + a prospect for Miller and a conditional 3rd for Grant (becoming a 2nd if a team achieves or re-signs him). But the team might also want to keep both guys around for next year, so I could see GMBM offering contract extensions rather than trading them. I'd be open to trading either guy, but would also be happy if we just kept them and re-signed them for 2020-21.

The two guys who I really hope GMBM doesn't trade are Guddy and Kase. Although, looking around the league at what some of the contenders need, I think both guys could bring back some significant pieces. I'm not sure the return on ether guy is worth what they bring to the Ducks though, so I really hope GMBM keeps both guys unless an offer knocks his socks off.

As for Shore, Sprong and Ritchie, I'm not sure what to make of those guys. My gut tells me there is no market for Shore and GMBM will simply let him walk this summer by not giving him a qualifying offer (what a sad waste of Cogs that would turn out to be...). Spronger, I have no idea what the organization wants from this guy. I'd almost rather see him traded just to give him a chance at the NHL level with a team that clearly wants him. That's probably more like a summer trade though. And then there's Nick Ritchie. He's a big body that can go to the net, he plays with an edge, and he has some decent hands... I could see a team really wanting to grab him for a playoff run. I'm admittedly not a big Ritchie fan, but I do think his stock has climbed recently due to some improved play this season (even in spite of the injury), especially given what similar guys like Maroon and Reaves have brought to their teams as bottom-6ers over the past couple of playoffs. We also have lots of LWs, so if he is moved then the Ducks would have no problem sliding Shore or (preferably) Comtois right back into the lineup in his spot, or the team could just bring Lundestrom back up and slide Rico to LW again for the season ending tank stretch run.

So what do you all think? Who stays and who goes?

 

The classic battle between what we think Murray should do vs. what we think he will do. Like you, I don’t see a major move being made until the offseason unless a team is going to make an over the top offer. The only person that I’d say is gone by the deadline is Del Zotto...again. Next likely is Devin Shore.  

I think Grant should be moved, but I can just as easily see Murray doing something stupid and give him an extension. I think that Miller stays and won’t waive his NTC because he ultimately wants to stay at home with his family.

Elliott Friedman has blurb saying how much the Ducks love Manson and that other GM’s would be surprised if the Ducks moved him. Could be a posturing move but if not then he seems to figure into the Ducks long term plans.

 

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4 minutes ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

The classic battle between what we think Murray should do vs. what we think he will do. Like you, I don’t see a major move being made until the offseason unless a team is going to make an over the top offer. The only person that I’d say is gone by the deadline is Del Zotto...again. Next likely is Devin Shore.  

I think Grant should be moved, but I can just as easily see Murray doing something stupid and give him an extension. I think that Miller stays and won’t waive his NTC because he ultimately wants to stay at home with his family.

Elliott Friedman has blurb saying how much the Ducks love Manson and that other GM’s would be surprised if the Ducks moved him. Could be a posturing move but if not then he seems to figure into the Ducks long term plans.

 

Keep in mind that Miller's NTC is actually a modified NTC where has has had to submit a 6-team trade list. If one of the teams on his list comes a-calling, he doesn't need to waive anything. I believe Boyle and Stolarz are currently sharing the net in San Diego and I could see the Ducks bringing one of those guys up to start 4-5 of the final 19 games after the deadline if Miller is moved. I think we have just 3 B2Bs after the deadline too. I also think that if Miller doesn't intend to play again with the Ducks next season, it wouldn't be a bad idea to audition Stolarz for the backup role since he is already signed through 2021 on a 1-way deal. 

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1 hour ago, dtsdlaw said:

Pending UFAs (2020) - Ryan Miller, Derek Grantzlaf, Michael Del Zotto, Korbinian Holzer, Nicolas Deslauriers.

Pending RFAs (2020) - Devin Shore, Daniel Sprong

Pending UFAs (2021) - Erik Gudbranson, Carter Rowney

Pending RFAs (2021) - Nick Ritchie, Ondrej Kase, 

You're missing Manson, Larsson, Guhle, and Sherwood.  We could consider Kesler, but I think he's kept for the LTIR relief in case a big deal comes down (I think Kesler would agree to waive if he was just being used to shift cap-debt around).

I think a deal will come close with Manson and one more of the above, could even be Manson and DelZ, but my guess is that the team will say no to Manson and the deal won't fly with the other D.

I want the team to sign GBud through to some date past Lindholm's contract, but he's just too valuable if someone comes a calling.  If he gets traded it'll be a pure rental to a playoff team (or Toronto) and we'll get a 2nd/conditional 1st.  We may not get him back, and that'll make Cam sad.  Cam may put up a fight to keep GBud.

Shore, Sprong, Holzer, DelZ, Larsson, Guhle, and Sherwood are all fungible.  They could fill in lopsided trades, or they could be combined into a young prospect for some depth on a playoff team.

Nick and Kase... man, at the beginning of the season, I would have traded either for beans.  Now, they've made it hard.  The perfect trade would be one of them and one of our middling D for a solid right or left handed D, but we just can't make that trade before the ED.  So, if there is a trade, it's one of them and a middling D for a high pick and a scrub, or a 2nd round pick and a solid prospect.  Maybe we sweeten it with some fungibles to get a higher pick.

Grant, Carter, FrenchyD... They're just too damn cheap and too damn good to trade away.  I want to keep them together, and I think management and coaching wants that too (especially if they ship Manson).  I think it would show immense maturity for the team to sign them all past the ED, and pay them all 1.25M/year.  Derek deserves the (significant) pay raise, even if we end up trading him before then.  It's fair to lock them all in as a line.  It's a line you almost have to love, kinda like the twins were (Getz and Perry).  It practically pays for itself in marketing, if the team can pull it off.

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2 hours ago, Fisix said:

You're missing Manson, Larsson, Guhle, and Sherwood.  We could consider Kesler, but I think he's kept for the LTIR relief in case a big deal comes down (I think Kesler would agree to waive if he was just being used to shift cap-debt around).

I didn’t include Manson because he has multiple years left on his contract, so he’s not really a rental. He goes UFA in 2022, so he’d be a “hockey deal” if he were traded. Larsson I don’t believe there is a market for at all. Guhle is a prospect and I stated that I was excluding prospects. I don’t think any TDL buyers are looking for prospects to fill out their lineup for a Cup run. This would apply to Sherwood too, since he’s basically a 24-year-old career AHLer at this point. Nobody is buying him for a Cup run either.

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3 hours ago, dtsdlaw said:

Keep in mind that Miller's NTC is actually a modified NTC where has has had to submit a 6-team trade list. If one of the teams on his list comes a-calling, he doesn't need to waive anything. I believe Boyle and Stolarz are currently sharing the net in San Diego and I could see the Ducks bringing one of those guys up to start 4-5 of the final 19 games after the deadline if Miller is moved. I think we have just 3 B2Bs after the deadline too. I also think that if Miller doesn't intend to play again with the Ducks next season, it wouldn't be a bad idea to audition Stolarz for the backup role since he is already signed through 2021 on a 1-way deal. 

If they are able to move him for assets then I’m on board with giving Stolarz/Boyle a heavy audition for next year. Gibson’s starts should be reduced down the stretch no matter who the backup is, imo. My gut feeling is that Miller isn’t going to go anywhere unless he wants to and that Murray would oblige him. Plus, if he’s willing to hold onto Grant then I see him holding onto a revered veteran like Miller lol.

3 hours ago, Fisix said:

You're missing Manson, Larsson, Guhle, and Sherwood.  We could consider Kesler, but I think he's kept for the LTIR relief in case a big deal comes down (I think Kesler would agree to waive if he was just being used to shift cap-debt around).

I think a deal will come close with Manson and one more of the above, could even be Manson and DelZ, but my guess is that the team will say no to Manson and the deal won't fly with the other D.

I want the team to sign GBud through to some date past Lindholm's contract, but he's just too valuable if someone comes a calling.  If he gets traded it'll be a pure rental to a playoff team (or Toronto) and we'll get a 2nd/conditional 1st.  We may not get him back, and that'll make Cam sad.  Cam may put up a fight to keep GBud.

Shore, Sprong, Holzer, DelZ, Larsson, Guhle, and Sherwood are all fungible.  They could fill in lopsided trades, or they could be combined into a young prospect for some depth on a playoff team.

Nick and Kase... man, at the beginning of the season, I would have traded either for beans.  Now, they've made it hard.  The perfect trade would be one of them and one of our middling D for a solid right or left handed D, but we just can't make that trade before the ED.  So, if there is a trade, it's one of them and a middling D for a high pick and a scrub, or a 2nd round pick and a solid prospect.  Maybe we sweeten it with some fungibles to get a higher pick.

Grant, Carter, FrenchyD... They're just too damn cheap and too damn good to trade away.  I want to keep them together, and I think management and coaching wants that too (especially if they ship Manson).  I think it would show immense maturity for the team to sign them all past the ED, and pay them all 1.25M/year.  Derek deserves the (significant) pay raise, even if we end up trading him before then.  It's fair to lock them all in as a line.  It's a line you almost have to love, kinda like the twins were (Getz and Perry).  It practically pays for itself in marketing, if the team can pull it off.

Gudbranson has another year left on his contract so he’s not really a pure rental but I don’t see the Ducks moving him at the deadline, if they eventually do. He could get extended solely for the ED and/or because Murray loves the style he plays.

Kase and Ritchie have played well together and Ritchie is better than most give him credit for. I think that he’s gone because of the LW logjam and because he held out. 

This team isn’t good enough to be competitive so the biggest mistake IMO, is keeping the roster pretty much as is. If we want quality pieces to rebuild or improve the current team going forward then we are going to have to give up quality to get it. 

 

note: LA seems to have traded Campbell and Clifford to Toronto for Trevor Moore, a 3rd and a conditional 3rd

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8 minutes ago, gorbachav5 said:

I would have loved to see if Miller would accept a trade to Toronto, but it looks like that's out the window now.  Miller's the one who could get the best return from a desperate team.  I guess it's still possible.  Vegas could move on from Subban as its backup and send the Ducks a 3rd, plus Miller would still be out west.

I think they probably should trade Grant, but that would, strangely, bum me out.  His possession numbers are the stuff of nightmares, although I can close my eyes and pretend that it's because of poor deployment and terrible linemates.  I love the way the guy plays, and he's the ideal 4th line producer for a playoff run - that guy no one knows or thinks they should care about and then he scores 3 or 4 back-breaking goals throughout the postseason.  But alas, that isn't happening any time soon.  See if you can get a 3rd or 4th from him.

Trade Deslauriers for literally anything.  A pile of moderately used towels, for instance.  A Western Conference team might fool themselves into thinking they need him for a matchup with the Blues, so I could see this happening.

Trade Devin Shore to a passing caravan of aliens before explaining to them how hockey works.  That's the only way we're not stuck with him.

Nick Ritchie is really frustrating.  I'm not sure what it will take to unlock the talent that's there.  Or get it to play out on a consistent basis.  I continue to advocate playing him because I think his trade value is minimal and he obviously has some ability to produce as a decent third liner.  But he continues to be inconsistent.  I guess if someone offered you a 2nd, you'd have to think about it.

I wouldn't trade anyone else in a fire sale.  I could see other trades being made, but they'd be hockey deals.

:lol::lol::lol:

Your Devin Shore posts are epic. I almost want to keep him just for these types of comments.

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Miller isn't going anywhere...i seem to remember the talk at the last TDL and there was something brewing with the Sharks (which would have made a lot of sense....) but Miller said he didn't want to be moved to a team for a chance to win the cup. it was an...interesting...comment.

anyway, no idea! MDZ maybe again...maybe Grant...maybe Kase......but Kase would have to be returning a 2nd rounder or some prospect...I don't think we move Kase for anything less than that. Or an NHL ready guy but that wont be happening at the TDL. wouldn't be surprised to see us do basically nothing lol

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I think with recent points, we're going to be stuck in a gray area between complete sales and buy.  I picture a minor move of someone we can afford to lose that gives us a pick or prospect, plus maybe take someone's bad contract for a year and ask for  better prospect for our troubles.  Kase for a financial sandbag and a fairdemeddlin' prospect for instance.   

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27 minutes ago, bufbarnaby said:

After the Flames game , something big needs to happen.😣

Wish we could unload Rakell for starters.

Nothing significant will happen. BM will trade Grant, Deslauiers and, maybe, Kase for mid-rounds draft picks

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Andy Greene just got a Second and Queneville

Murry has to be salivating at what he could get for Manson. I’m fine with not moving Manson, but the market price could really put us in a good position 

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8 minutes ago, Sexlaf15 said:

Andy Greene just got a Second and Queneville

Murry has to be salivating at what he could get for Manson. I’m fine with not moving Manson, but the market price could really put us in a good position 

Yep, a ransom for Manson! I am stunned that Green got a 2nd round pick.

There are also rumors that Blake Coleman could be moved very soon. The Devils seem to understand that when you don't have a team that's good enough to make the playoffs or contend then you start moving players out. I hope that Bob is taking notes.

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Just now, BombaysTripleDeke said:

Yep, a ransom for Manson! I am stunned that Green got a 2nd round pick.

There are also rumors that Blake Coleman could be moved very soon. The Devils seem to understand that when you don't have a team that's good enough to make the playoffs or contend then you start moving players out. I hope that Bob is taking notes.

Idk New Jersey is a mess they jumped at trying to be competitive again and ruined a rebuild, now are being forced to rebuild again. Although having Hischier and Hughes isn’t too bad of a start 

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15 minutes ago, Sexlaf15 said:

Idk New Jersey is a mess they jumped at trying to be competitive again and ruined a rebuild, now are being forced to rebuild again. Although having Hischier and Hughes isn’t too bad of a start 

Yeah, I think that's a big key. Having two centers that are projected to anchor your franchise for a decade is a huge start. The Devils have a more talented roster than the Ducks but their back-up goaltending has been absolutely atrocious (Schnieder, Domingue). Subban also hasn't been good and Sami has been hurt. I'm surprised that they have struggled so much given all of the offseason additions, where the Rangers seem to be doing better than expected. 

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25 minutes ago, JiggyToTheCup said:

https://www.nhltraderumors.me/2020/02/rumor-maple-leafs-offer-for-ducks-josh.html?fbclid=IwAR3QlcZU662Sg0Uhn2ISos2vw1aP-tr8mBOMpgCq_2TAbDB81LJhN5tzGQI

To the Maple Leafs: Josh Manson

To the Ducks: Alexander Kerfoot, Cody Ceci, and prospect RHD Mac Hollowell

If Murray made this trade, especially after what Andy Greene just got traded for, then Murray should drop kicked into the Grand Canyon. 

P.S. Cody Ceci is awful.

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21 hours ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

If Murray made this trade, especially after what Andy Greene just got traded for, then Murray should drop kicked into the Grand Canyon. 

P.S. Cody Ceci is awful.

Ducks would have to be compensated for taking Ceci. No sarcasm. He’s awful on an awful contract. 
 

Anything less than:

Top Prospect

Younf NHL player with upside 

1st-2nd rounder depending on the prospect/player.

 

Manson is still under 30 on a damn good contract, is right handed, and hellova lot better than Andy Greene

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23 hours ago, JiggyToTheCup said:

https://www.nhltraderumors.me/2020/02/rumor-maple-leafs-offer-for-ducks-josh.html?fbclid=IwAR3QlcZU662Sg0Uhn2ISos2vw1aP-tr8mBOMpgCq_2TAbDB81LJhN5tzGQI

To the Maple Leafs: Josh Manson

To the Ducks: Alexander Kerfoot, Cody Ceci, and prospect RHD Mac Hollowell

Another trade created by a delusional Leafs fan.

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I would move almost anyone if it helps the team rebuild. I don't really want Getzlaf to play for the other team and Gibson is young and about as good as it gets so those are probably the only 2 guys I would hate to see moved. Any other player should be on the table IMO.

Every one of our UFAs should be moved. Grant has 14 goals as a 4th liner. Every playoff team should want him for forward depth.

I'm not against changing up the defensive unit. I can't see Manson going anywhere purely because he's our only NHL quality defenseman on the right side. I like both Fowler and Lindholm but both would net a lot in a trade. Edit: Forgot Gudbranson, who I would re-sign but only for the third pairing. He played above that this season but long term I think he's a 5/6 guy.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, nieder said:

I would move almost anyone if it helps the team rebuild. I don't really want Getzlaf to play for the other team and Gibson is young and about as good as it gets so those are probably the only 2 guys I would hate to see moved. Any other player should be on the table IMO.

Every one of our UFAs should be moved. Grant has 14 goals as a 4th liner. Every playoff team should want him for forward depth.

I'm not against changing up the defensive unit. I can't see Manson going anywhere purely because he's our only NHL quality defenseman on the right side. I like both Fowler and Lindholm but both would net a lot in a trade.

 

 

Plus, it's not going to really matter if he's the only quality RHD defensemen if the team needs quality assets for a rebuild. In that case, Manson could be more valuable to the Ducks being traded. He still has two years left on his deal so nothing needs to happen by next Monday. I'd add Lindholm and Fowler to that list of players that shouldn't be moved. 

I agree with you that I'm open to moving pretty much anyone else to help with the rebuild. My concern is Murray thinking that a team comprised with mostly of the current roster can somehow contend and keeps them in tact. 

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2 minutes ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

Plus, it's not going to really matter if he's the only quality RHD defensemen if the team needs quality assets for a rebuild. In that case, Manson could be more valuable to the Ducks being traded. He still has two years left on his deal so nothing needs to happen by next Monday. I'd add Lindholm and Fowler to that list of players that shouldn't be moved. 

I agree with you that I'm open to moving pretty much anyone else to help with the rebuild. My concern is Murray thinking that a team comprised with mostly of the current roster can somehow contend and keeps them in tact. 

Honesty I think we have like 3 legit trade assets. Henrique, Manson, Grant. We can always resign Grant, and we’re very shallow on the right side, so I’m not entirely sure how many people can be more value traded than they provide on the team. 
I think our hopes have to be on our current farm. Terry, Zegras probably being the most flashy of what we have. 

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Colorado is down Kadri and now Rantanen who’s out for weeks with a broken collarbone. Might be a market for Grant, maybe even Henrique. 

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3 minutes ago, Sexlaf15 said:

Honesty I think we have like 3 legit trade assets. Henrique, Manson, Grant. We can always resign Grant, and we’re very shallow on the right side, so I’m not entirely sure how many people can be more value traded than they provide on the team. 
I think our hopes have to be on our current farm. Terry, Zegras probably being the most flashy of what we have. 

I think that any one of Kase, Rakell and Silfverberg could also be on the trading block for the right price at some point. You obviously don't trade everyone that isn't nailed down but you should at least be listening on offers. I think that has to be the mindset because the alternative is to keep this group mostly together as they get older and more expensive in the process. 

I don't think our current system has enough yet to get the Ducks back to contention. Outside of goaltending, we still need high end talent everywhere else lol. 

 

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To those that subscribe to The Athletic, Eric Stephens has a very good article (published yesterday) on the trade deadline and the Ducks. He lists each player and the pros and cons of that player being moved. fyi

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