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45 minutes ago, gorbachav5 said:

With all due respect, this just isn't true.  A best-of-7 series is meant to find a winner (and generate playoff revenue for owners), and at least attempts to even out the luck somewhat by requiring the winner to win four games rather than one.  But there are still wide disparities in luck over seven games (or five).

According to Natural Stat Trick, which uses shot position and scoring chances to determine expected goals, Vegas should have outscored Dallas 11.5 - 8.7 over the final four games of the series, winning each one by at least half a goal.  Instead they lost three of the four.  That sounds an awful lot like a team that outplayed its opponent and simply couldn't get the shots to go in (and we know Vegas is a talented shooting team, so we can't say that this is a team like the Ducks that can't put pucks in the net because they don't have shooting skill).  Not coincidentally, that also sounds an awful lot like the game of hockey to me.

Right it's an attempt to do it, it may not be perfect, but I'd be curious to hear other ways to make a best-of-7 series do a better job at having the better-on-paper team win. To an extent, the underdog/upsets are really fun, imo. And I still would say Dallas ALSO had it's fair share of bad luck. Bad calls against, shots against posts, Lehner/Fleury making great saves...probably just didn't happen as much since, you are correct, Dallas didn't shoot as much as Vegas.

I wish I could find the article talking about the perimeter shots (was on theSCORE app or the Athletic...) 'cause I'm not great at just looking at advanced stats and being able to fully understand what they are saying...proof in I went to Natural Stat Trick and was like "...cool....nope" lol And yeah, I agree, Vegas outplayed Dallas. But to what end? You can shoot as much as you want, have all the advanced stats predict all the good things for you...it's ultimately all in the results. What's the result? If you don't win the game, none of that matters. I'm very much a results based person.

I think advanced stats are super interesting and a great attempt to try and use stats to predict things, but the problem with them is if Vegas uses them as a comfort blanket and just says "well, we should have won but it was just a hot goalie and they got lucky" they'll never actually address their own issues and thus wont actually address their problems and they wont improve. Tampa did the opposite. They looked hard at themselves and their team and made some adjustments. Took responsibility for the loss and made adjustments.

Everyone on that team...except maybe Lehner, Fleury, Stone, and Theo need to look at themselves and see what they could have done better and how they can improve. Not saying a huge overhaul. Just need to look honestly at themselves and their game and make the changes that make sense.

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51 minutes ago, Jasoaks said:

Right it's an attempt to do it, it may not be perfect, but I'd be curious to hear other ways to make a best-of-7 series do a better job at having the better-on-paper team win. To an extent, the underdog/upsets are really fun, imo. And I still would say Dallas ALSO had it's fair share of bad luck. Bad calls against, shots against posts, Lehner/Fleury making great saves...probably just didn't happen as much since, you are correct, Dallas didn't shoot as much as Vegas.

I don't think there is any way to make a playoff series do a better job at having the better team win.  Randomness is part of sports, particularly hockey.  And while the result in this particular series didn't come out the way I wanted, that doesn't mean I think this is bad.  Without this feature, we'd never have upsets or Cinderella stories.  We follow sports in part because it's the only true drama left to us; you can't predict what's going to happen, and that's a good thing.  But it does result in injustice sometimes, which I think was done in this series.

51 minutes ago, Jasoaks said:

I wish I could find the article talking about the perimeter shots (was on theSCORE app or the Athletic...) 'cause I'm not great at just looking at advanced stats and being able to fully understand what they are saying...proof in I went to Natural Stat Trick and was like "...cool....nope" lol And yeah, I agree, Vegas outplayed Dallas. But to what end? You can shoot as much as you want, have all the advanced stats predict all the good things for you...it's ultimately all in the results. What's the result? If you don't win the game, none of that matters. I'm very much a results based person.

Sports is a results-based business, but I think process is the thing you have to focus on.  Results can HELP inform if the process works or whether changes should be made, but you can also make the huge mistake of allowing randomly determined results to influence changes in a process that was good.  If you outshoot a team, but your normally reliable snipers hit posts or the goalie made some ridiculous saves, you don't dump those snipers for grinders.

As for advanced stats, the ones I'm looking at aren't that difficult to understand.  If you go to the games section on Natural Stat Trick and select Vegas and hit submit, check the xGF% column.  Basically, what that column does is it looks at all shots and scoring opportunities generated during the game and assigns a value to it based on how often that scoring chance results in a goal.  For example, a point shot with no one screening might be given a value of .005 (i.e. that shot will go in the net 0.5% of the time, very rarely) whereas a shot off of a clean pass on a 2-on-1 might be given a value of .6 (i.e. that shot is a goal 60% of the time).  You add up all of these to come up with your total expected goals for the game and then figure out what percentage of those should be assigned to which team.  Vegas actually didn't look as good as I thought at 5-on-5, but if you change the option up at the top to "All Strengths," you can see that Vegas was fairly dominant, and even more so in the Vancouver series. You can go to the "Teams" section of that site and look at the performance for the season.  Vegas was the best team during the season of taking their share of scoring chances, and their percentage of expected goals for was under 54%.  So when you look at their playoff performances and see a bunch of xGF% in the high 50's and 60's, you realize just how well Vegas was playing.

51 minutes ago, Jasoaks said:

I think advanced stats are super interesting and a great attempt to try and use stats to predict things, but the problem with them is if Vegas uses them as a comfort blanket and just says "well, we should have won but it was just a hot goalie and they got lucky" they'll never actually address their own issues and thus wont actually address their problems and they wont improve. Tampa did the opposite. They looked hard at themselves and their team and made some adjustments. Took responsibility for the loss and made adjustments.

Everyone on that team...except maybe Lehner, Fleury, Stone, and Theo need to look at themselves and see what they could have done better and how they can improve. Not saying a huge overhaul. Just need to look honestly at themselves and their game and make the changes that make sense.

I think teams should do exactly this.  Vegas should look at how they played using advanced stats and video analysis, determine that it was good, and they should say, "Man, we played well and just didn't get enough pucks past a ridiculously hot Anton Khudobin.  It would be a mistake to over-react to that and make unnecessary changes."  I'm not saying teams shouldn't try to improve; obviously, every team should try to improve every year.  Tampa, despite being the best team in the league last season, tried to make some improvements.  But I don't think the moves they made mean they're a much better team than last year.  I think they slumped against Columbus last season, had some poorly timed injuries and bad play, and lost to a hot team.  Similarly, Vegas should absolutely try to improve because it would be dumb to do otherwise.  They're not an unstoppable juggernaut.  But they should also honestly assess how they played and realize that their process and approach was good.  It was better than Dallas, but just didn't go the way they wanted.

Bob Murray has been doing way too much results-based analysis for the Ducks.  Rather than determining a good process and sticking with it, he tweaked the roster every year based on which team they lost to in the playoffs.  If it was a fast team, he added speed.  If it was a big team, he added size.  If it was a shot-blocking team...etc.  It also led to canning Bruce Boudreau for Randy Carlyle and now Dallas Eakins.  I don't think it's a successful way to go about managing a sports franchise.

Edited by gorbachav5

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Heck, look at the game last night.  Tampa Bay outshot the Islanders, outchanced the Islanders, heck, even outscored the Islanders if you include the overturned goal that was called back (which I agree was the right call).  Kucherov gets a glorious chance in the second OT and just can't quite put it in, and then Kevin Shattenkirk, a solid defenseman, particularly in the offensive zone, whiffs on a shot attempt, which leads to a 2-on-1 that the Islanders convert.  The results say that the Islanders were a better team than Tampa Bay last night.  Should Tampa Bay change anything because they lost?  Maybe they should make a deal with whatever deity they see fit to get some of their players healthy, but other than that, I don't see anything they need to change.  It's just the way it goes. 

If the Lightning keep playing that way, they probably win one of the next two games.  But they also might not because that's sports.  It doesn't make them the worse team, or even mean that they played worse.

Edited by gorbachav5

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On 9/14/2020 at 9:06 PM, Jasoaks said:

wow...wow....wowowowowowowowow....so happy to see Perry back in the finals!! And cogliano!!! Gets his first taste of the finals!! so excited for them!! And Khudobin!! wooooo!!!

That's not on Whitecloud...he wasn't even on the ice for that goal. That's on Vegas for not being able to win a game without it being a shutout...

Go Stars!! I can thoroughly just enjoy the Finals now. Basically fine with any of the remaining teams.

I'm so happy that Vegas won't win it. I just can't get over the feeling that they need to go through some tough times before winning it all. I don't care about what happened in the expansion draft, whether it was fair or not or whatever. I just don't want their franchise to experience winning a Cup before they experience missing the playoffs.

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On 9/15/2020 at 12:20 AM, Jasoaks said:

hmm maybe...I dunno. Their complete lack of scoring in those last 8 games was troubling though...sure they picked it up a little bit...but obviously not enough...

I've seen rumors of Fleury possibly being traded to Nashville...just rumors. Not sure if there's actually any legs to it...probably just some random kid making it up lol but yeah, you wonder about that whole tweet thing...

Fleury is done in Vegas. There's no way he doesn't ask for a trade 

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7 hours ago, gorbachav5 said:

Stuff.

Vegas had scoring chances, but either they shot the pucks all from the blue line directly into K's belly, or Dallas forced them to.

There's really no cognizable limit to how far you can take your concept of luck, which is why it doesn't make a good... excuse to judge one team better than another even though the "better" team lost.  I think I can give you a single game win - we've all seen a single game between extremely balanced teams won by a shot that was meant as a pass but went in off a defender's whatever.  But, over 7 games?  No.  You can say a team experienced bad luck over the course of a series, but that's separate from who the better team was.  The "better" team overcomes the adversity, the bad shooting stats, whatever, and wins the 7 game series.

In a 7 game series, the most important stat, the one that trumps all others, is who reached 4 wins first.  That's the better team.  If the other team experienced bad luck along the way, and didn't overcome it, then they're not the better team.  That said, maybe there are a few caveats, but they aren't luck based.  If the Refs are biased or get a bunch of one-sided calls wrong, over most or all of the 7 games, then maybe the better team lost.  If a series winning team sent out a minimum wage nobody with scar tissue between their ears who kneecapped a few important players on the other team, then maybe the better team lost.  I'd entertain those arguments.

i don't think either apply to the Dallas/Vegas series.  the better team (as between their head to head) won the series.  maybe Vegas would have had a better chance against NYI/TBL in the Cup game if they'd been promoted... but that's beside the point.  they shot a lot, but they didn't convert, so they lost the series, and they aren't better than Dallas, not in 2019-20.

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10 hours ago, gorbachav5 said:

I don't think there is any way to make a playoff series do a better job at having the better team win.  Randomness is part of sports, particularly hockey.  And while the result in this particular series didn't come out the way I wanted, that doesn't mean I think this is bad.  Without this feature, we'd never have upsets or Cinderella stories.  We follow sports in part because it's the only true drama left to us; you can't predict what's going to happen, and that's a good thing.  But it does result in injustice sometimes, which I think was done in this series.

Got it. That makes sense. And I guess with this particular one...I'm OK with it haha because.......

10 hours ago, nieder said:

I'm so happy that Vegas won't win it. I just can't get over the feeling that they need to go through some tough times before winning it all. I don't care about what happened in the expansion draft, whether it was fair or not or whatever. I just don't want their franchise to experience winning a Cup before they experience missing the playoffs.

I very much agree with this haha along with a general love for ex-Ducks Perry/Cogliano/Khudobin. And a general love for "defense wins championships" (a bit old school with that). And wanting us to get a cup before Theo so we can feel like ultimately we made the right choice...when...we so very much didn't as it looks right now lol

10 hours ago, gorbachav5 said:

As for advanced stats, the ones I'm looking at aren't that difficult to understand.  If you go to the games section on Natural Stat Trick and select Vegas and hit submit, check the xGF% column.  Basically, what that column does is it looks at all shots and scoring opportunities generated during the game and assigns a value to it based on how often that scoring chance results in a goal.  For example, a point shot with no one screening might be given a value of .005 (i.e. that shot will go in the net 0.5% of the time, very rarely) whereas a shot off of a clean pass on a 2-on-1 might be given a value of .6 (i.e. that shot is a goal 60% of the time).  You add up all of these to come up with your total expected goals for the game and then figure out what percentage of those should be assigned to which team.  Vegas actually didn't look as good as I thought at 5-on-5, but if you change the option up at the top to "All Strengths," you can see that Vegas was fairly dominant, and even more so in the Vancouver series. You can go to the "Teams" section of that site and look at the performance for the season.  Vegas was the best team during the season of taking their share of scoring chances, and their percentage of expected goals for was under 54%.  So when you look at their playoff performances and see a bunch of xGF% in the high 50's and 60's, you realize just how well Vegas was playing.

This is a great explanation! thank you! this is great for understanding it...I'm going to let this marinate for a bit...it's still a lot haha

10 hours ago, gorbachav5 said:

I think teams should do exactly this.  Vegas should look at how they played using advanced stats and video analysis, determine that it was good, and they should say, "Man, we played well and just didn't get enough pucks past a ridiculously hot Anton Khudobin.  It would be a mistake to over-react to that and make unnecessary changes."  I'm not saying teams shouldn't try to improve; obviously, every team should try to improve every year.  Tampa, despite being the best team in the league last season, tried to make some improvements.  But I don't think the moves they made mean they're a much better team than last year.  I think they slumped against Columbus last season, had some poorly timed injuries and bad play, and lost to a hot team.  Similarly, Vegas should absolutely try to improve because it would be dumb to do otherwise.  They're not an unstoppable juggernaut.  But they should also honestly assess how they played and realize that their process and approach was good.  It was better than Dallas, but just didn't go the way they wanted.

Yeah, I get this. And I see what you're saying. And honestly, Vegas probably shouldn't change much. But I do think they need to work on their attitude and perspective a bit (here comes the mumbo jumbo). I do think there is a value in failure though and that 2019 Tampa team didn't really face much failure at all till the playoffs and they had no idea how to come out of it. Yes they had injuries and played against a hot team, but it's a great learning experience for them to figure out how do you play/win when you aren't playing well and goals aren't going in. You become a much stronger player if you are capable to learn how to be effective and still produce when you're not playing as well. How to get your game back without holding your stick too tight or over thinking. Losing like Tampa did...that helps you do that. And it can also be used as great motivation for the next run...like now. But absolutely like you're saying, it would be wrong for Vegas to explode their team. I agree with that.

10 hours ago, gorbachav5 said:

Bob Murray has been doing way too much results-based analysis for the Ducks.  Rather than determining a good process and sticking with it, he tweaked the roster every year based on which team they lost to in the playoffs.  If it was a fast team, he added speed.  If it was a big team, he added size.  If it was a shot-blocking team...etc.  It also led to canning Bruce Boudreau for Randy Carlyle and now Dallas Eakins.  I don't think it's a successful way to go about managing a sports franchise.

I think this is a great analysis on BM. And I didn't even really think about that till now. This does hurt the identity of the team. You gotta look at the core players and see what kind of team you should be building that build to their strengths and fixes their weaknesses.

10 hours ago, gorbachav5 said:

Heck, look at the game last night.  Tampa Bay outshot the Islanders, outchanced the Islanders, heck, even outscored the Islanders if you include the overturned goal that was called back (which I agree was the right call).  Kucherov gets a glorious chance in the second OT and just can't quite put it in, and then Kevin Shattenkirk, a solid defenseman, particularly in the offensive zone, whiffs on a shot attempt, which leads to a 2-on-1 that the Islanders convert.  The results say that the Islanders were a better team than Tampa Bay last night.  Should Tampa Bay change anything because they lost?  Maybe they should make a deal with whatever deity they see fit to get some of their players healthy, but other than that, I don't see anything they need to change.  It's just the way it goes. 

If the Lightning keep playing that way, they probably win one of the next two games.  But they also might not because that's sports.  It doesn't make them the worse team, or even mean that they played worse.

Yeah, I agree, Tampa shouldn't change anything (except praying for less injuries, yes). But, I will say if they let last nights game rattle them...that's on them. And they need to not let that shake their confidence. And that is also a factor. They need to look at Game 1 and ...whichever 2 others they won lol and remember they can score on this team. They don't need to be rattled or have any insecurities seep in. They got this.

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10 hours ago, nieder said:

Fleury is done in Vegas. There's no way he doesn't ask for a trade 

Yeeeep. And there are I guess a few teams showing interest in him....and that's a real shame for Vegas I'd say...Fleury was such a face for that team. I wonder if it'll have any impact on them or if it did during the playoffs.

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I am SO SICK of the tampa players blocking a shot in their D zone and going down to the ice and staying there, holding their head (despite not having their head hit), hoping for a whistle to stop the pressure...then don't get it. And get up slowly...and the moment the puck is near them suddenly back at full speed and everything's fine the rest of the shift.

uuuuugggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh happened twice in this 3rd period that I noticed...

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A lot of people seem to think this will be a short series with a Tampa win....wouldn't be surprised lol and not too upset by that. I'd rather the Stars win, but Lightning are cool, too.

But I don't care who wins if it goes to 7 games!...I'm rooting for a 7-game series...only for the fact that if it does...that would mean they would award the Stanley Cup on my birthday! Never in my whole life did I ever think there would be a meaningful game on my birthday....let alone the potential for a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7!!

Soooo...let's go Game 7! *clap clap clapclapclap!*

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2 hours ago, Jasoaks said:

A lot of people seem to think this will be a short series with a Tampa win....wouldn't be surprised lol and not too upset by that. I'd rather the Stars win, but Lightning are cool, too.

But I don't care who wins if it goes to 7 games!...I'm rooting for a 7-game series...only for the fact that if it does...that would mean they would award the Stanley Cup on my birthday! Never in my whole life did I ever think there would be a meaningful game on my birthday....let alone the potential for a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7!!

Soooo...let's go Game 7! *clap clap clapclapclap!*

I'm cheering for Dallas as I want to see Perry and Cogs win. But my head says Tampa in 5.

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21 hours ago, nieder said:

I'm cheering for Dallas as I want to see Perry and Cogs win. But my head says Tampa in 5.

Yeah, yeah...same. Definitely rooting for Dallas. I want Dallas in 7...then Lightning in 7....then Dallas in whatever lol

Especially after hearing about their coaches story...honestly, when these playoffs started I couldn't have told you the name of the Stars head coach (and I can name...almost every teams head coach...)...and then I read he HAS COACHED THE MOST GAMES IN NHL HISTORY (when taking into account head coaching AND assistant coaching). I legit thought he was some new, up and coming coach that just got promoted and was getting his first taste in the hot seat...lol...nope! he was the assistant to Cooper in the Lightning which is really interesting. And also he coached the 92 Ottawa Senators lol...soooo...yeah...but apparently the players love him and from what I've been reading, I REALLY like him.

If Dallas wins...it's gonna be a big push to keep the mantra "defense wins championships" and also that would be 2 years in a row that interim head coaches won a cup...which would be really interesting to see what that would do for future coaches...

If Tampa wins...man what a great redemption story that would be. And would be a great one for teams that have similar upsets and can use Tampa as an example.

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Man it's amazing to watch Tampa "turn it on" like they did in the 3rd...but also so great watching Khudobin play...just great watching top talented people playing well

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On 9/18/2020 at 1:02 PM, nieder said:

I'm cheering for Dallas as I want to see Perry and Cogs win. But my head says Tampa in 5.

and Khudobin?  

on the lightning, we have Maroon, SCHENN, and McELHINNEY,  anyone else?

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4 hours ago, Fisix said:

and Khudobin?  

on the lightning, we have Maroon, SCHENN, and McELHINNEY,  anyone else?

I think that's it....can't count Shattenkirk haha

Also, I LOOOOVE how they have the Cup sitting up high looking down the whole series...I think that's so cool

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Man...Tampa was just smooooothering there in the end...but it didn't help that Dallas couldn't get anything clean and kept whiffing on shots and kept basically just doing one-and-done. Just like they were saying after game 1 about Dallas to Tampa..... to Dallas: Tampa aint the same as the teams they faced in the west. Vegas, Colorado, Calgary...that may have been a tied game...

Ugh! I find this series so entertaining!! I hope it goes to 7!!

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Bpbpbpbpbpbpbpbpbp...yeah, Tampa is looking damn good haha

the good news is this gives the Sharks the 31st pick and not the 30th!

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20 minutes ago, Fisix said:

"The Stars are a mess" - Stars Commentator.

so say we all.

haha yeeep. ugh it looked like a fire drill for most of that period...

If Dallas can have a good 3rd period, even if not winning, that could go a long way going into game 4

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at least they scored.  i think they best take a rest, watch some video, maybe think up a strategy or line change up or something, with a few new set plays for scoring.  and keep the hitting up.

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On 9/21/2020 at 8:50 PM, PetrSykora said:

Throw the whole Norris trophy in the trash. What a joke that award has become. 

Why? Josi is great.

Some of the votes for the awards are a joke though. Somebody actually gave a vote to Chara for the Norris.

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