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Should we go after Jack Eichel?

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18 minutes ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

Maybe the Ducks will be pursued this offseason also.

"maybe be a little comfortable with losing"

that is terrifying to hear...that...that's the losing culture right there....I wonder how Gibby's smoke signals are coming along...

But I would imagine that this is where someone like Getz and even Shatt can help...just not letting guys be comfortable with losing. It's gotta come from the guys who have won it all...

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13 hours ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

Maybe the Ducks will be pursued this offseason also.

If the whole article was quoted, it would have included how much Gibson loves playing for Anaheim and has zero desire to play anywhere else.

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47 minutes ago, dukitup said:

If the whole article was quoted, it would have included how much Gibson loves playing for Anaheim and has zero desire to play anywhere else.

Agreed, but I also think the Ducks are at a bit of a crossroads with regard to Gibson, so the possibility of trade is quite relevant. If the plan is to continue to suck in the hopes that we can get Shane Wright in 2022 or Connor Bedard in 2023, then I think Gibby should be moved. His save % the past two seasons dipped to .904 last season and .903 this season, and anyone who has watched him play can see the losing is clearly affecting his motivation and compete level. Gibby was still pretty good for most of last season despite a bad team in front of him, but he just wasn't very good at all this season after the first month or so. If they continue to be a bottom-of-the-league losing team next season, look for him to be below .900 in save % and his effort level to crater even further.

He also has a 10-team NTC that kicks in next season, which will make it more challenging to maximize a return if he is moved at some point down the road. So I think the Ducks have to make a decision on him soon - i.e. do you try to upgrade the team immediately to get back in the playoff mix next season and hope for a Gibby rebound? Or do you use Gibson as trade bait to fuel a longer but more robust rebuild that won't net results for 2-3+ more seasons? That's probably a good discussion topic for its own thread, but I'm in the former camp. I think we need to get back to our winning ways as early as possible so that the stench of losing doesn't linger on this team the way it does in Buffalo. I know others disagree though, so its worth having the discussion. 

Edited by dtsdlaw

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31 minutes ago, dtsdlaw said:

Agreed, but I also think the Ducks are at a bit of a crossroads with regard to Gibson, so the possibility of trade is quite relevant. If the plan is to continue to suck in the hopes that we can get Shane Wright in 2022 or Connor Bedard in 2023, then I think Gibby should be moved. His save % the past two seasons dipped to .904 last season and .903 this season, and anyone who has watched him play can see the losing is clearly affecting his motivation and compete level. Gibby was still pretty good for most of last season despite a bad team in front of him, but he just wasn't very good at all this season after the first month or so. If they continue to be a bottom-of-the-league losing team next season, look for him to be below .900 in save % and his effort level to crater even further.

He also has a 10-team NTC that kicks in next season, which will make it more challenging to maximize a return if he is moved at some point down the road. So I think the Ducks have to make a decision on him soon - i.e. do you try to upgrade the team immediately to get back in the playoff mix next season and hope for a Gibby rebound? Or do you use Gibson as trade bait to fuel a longer but more robust rebuild that won't net results for 2-3+ more seasons? That's probably a good discussion topic for its own thread, but I'm in the former camp. I think we need to get back to our winning ways as early as possible so that the stench of losing doesn't linger on this team the way it does in Buffalo. I know others disagree though, so its worth having the discussion. 

You make a ton of sense regarding Gibson.  The only thing that would make things change is for things to change - ie. coaching and GM.  Until that changes, I don't think it would matter a can of beans who is on the ice while the lack of system and professional coaching techniques are in place so that the culture of "our winning ways" can ever be realized.

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2 hours ago, dukitup said:

If the whole article was quoted, it would have included how much Gibson loves playing for Anaheim and has zero desire to play anywhere else.

Sure, but every athlete says that so I’m not taking it as though Gibson loves Anaheim so much that he’ll go through another season or two of being terribly bad before he’ll want out. It’s a scenario we’ve discussed on the boards before with how bad the Ducks have been and the odds of him asking for a trade have only increased, imo.

I don’t want to trade Gibson and I’m sure the team doesn’t either but like Gorbachav and dtsdlaw said, they might have to explore the option.

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45 minutes ago, Pazonator said:

Nhltraderumors has the kings making an offer 

I assume you meant on Jack Eichel (not Gibson).

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Lindholm played 18 games and Manson 23 games all season. Half of our top 4 was out over 50% of the season. Yes, we brought Drysdale up, but there was also the expected growing pains with him. I know injuries can't be predicted, but I have to believe our record would have been better with both playing the majority of the season.

 

I don't think there would be a significant obstacle trading Gibson after this year. Maybe I'm wrong, but a 10 team NTC (assuming most teams listed are crap) doesn't seem overly problematic. 

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1 hour ago, gorbachav5 said:

I don't think there's any realistic way to return to winning next year.  It would take some roster maneuvering that our current GM is incapable of, or that our current ownership is unwilling to do.  And we're probably looking at a tough situation the year after, as well.  So I think the Ducks need to explore offers, at the very least.

That said, if the organization doesn't think Dostal will be able to take the reins eventually, trading Gibson leaves a giant hole at the goaltender position that will be difficult to fill.  I don't think you need an elite goaltender to contend for Cups and division titles.  But you need to have a competent one.  Losing 6 - 4 every night instead of 4 - 1 would be more enjoyable, but still frustrating.  Is Dostal projected to be able to provide that?  He looked great at the beginning of the AHL season but has leveled off.

Maybe the Ducks trade Gibson and get another 1st to use on drafting Wallstedt?

I disagree with the bolded. Maybe I'm delusional, but with what we've seen from Comtois, Zegras, and Drysdale this season, I think we're a healthy blue line + another top-6 center + some better coaching (especially the PP) away from being in the playoffs next season. Think about it - next season we go back to the Pacific division, which will have Vegas, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, San Jose, LA and Seattle in it. Outside of Vegas and Edmonton, do any of those teams look like a lock for the playoffs next year to you? We also know that Bob is hot and heavy for a big fish center, and with our cap space and assets he could definitely make it happen. The coaching seems, amazingly, to be the only unrealistic hurdle, but the Ducks should at least have new assistants for next season. Even just promoting Dineen to run the offense and design a PP could be a big boost. But what if we do something like sign RNH? After watching the end of this season, does this roster seem like it can't compete in the Pacific division next season?

Comtois-RNH-Rakell, Henrique-Zegras-Terry, Jones-Getzlaf-Silfverberg, Steel-Lundestrom-Volkov

Lindholm-Manson, Fowler-Shattenkirk, Fleury-Drysdale

Gibson, Stolarz 

1 hour ago, gorbachav5 said:

The chances of this happening are roughly 0.0001% because they're the cross-town rivals.  However (warning, self-congratulation incoming), as I mentioned at the beginning of the season, the Kings are absolutely the best fit for a trade partner.  They are just about ready to be good (and even if they're a year away, Gibson's contract and age don't preclude him being a fit), they have a need at goalie (Cal Petersen does not look like the long-term answer), and they have a plethora of forward prospects that the Ducks would take in a heartbeat.  If the Kings were, say, the Devils, this deal would make a ton of sense.  You start with asking for Turcotte, then you ask for another of their top 10 prospects (Kaliyev?  Fagemo?  Grans?), and work out the details from there.  If Dostal projects to be at least a league average starter in the NHL, I think you make a deal like that, even though they're the Kings.

Absolutely true for the bolded. But Gibson for Turcotte + Quick would be really something...

Edited by dtsdlaw
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45 minutes ago, gorbachav5 said:

I do think you're delusional, sorry.  I convinced myself to believe at various points before and even at the beginning of this season, but it's clear the talent is severely lacking, and the player development isn't there.  Signing RNH - a two-way second line forward at best - is not the cure for this team's ills.  Some team is going to overpay that guy based on his draft pedigree and his affiliation with McDavid and Draisaitl.  I don't want it to be us.

If we fired Eakins and brought in a great coach, you could probably appeal to my optimistic side and convince me that there's a chance if they make the right moves.  But there's no sign that Eakins is getting fired.  There's also no sign that our blueline is going to be any healthier next year.  This is the second straight year that Lindholm has missed a decent chunk of time, and I'm not convinced Manson will be a healthy, top-4 d-man ever again.  Silf will be coming off of hip surgery.  Who knows what happens in the expansion draft?  I want to believe, but they were so, so bad this season, and it doesn't look like they're going to change much for next season.

i'll quibble with the bolded.  i think the players worth developing have made good strides this year.  the rest of the roster can be cycled through for new meat. 

the Ducks organization can always do a better job when it comes to player development, but this season i felt like the really high potential players weren't held back from working out their kinks and getting markedly better, individually and as part of a team, and i definitely felt most younger players (both D and F) were held back in prior years (under both BB and RC). 

RC was brutal with non-veteran players, and BB's style didn't leave a lot of room for rookies to get meaningful ice time.  though, to be fair to BB, i think the team was focused on SC runs within franchise player's performance windows way, WAY more than player development.  frankly, with 20-20 hindsight, i gladly would have given up 10s of regular season standings points during BB's tenure in order to give some rookies more meaningful regular season ice time.  could be a serious example of a team strategy failure on BM's part, that.

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3 hours ago, dukitup said:

Lindholm played 18 games and Manson 23 games all season. Half of our top 4 was out over 50% of the season. Yes, we brought Drysdale up, but there was also the expected growing pains with him. I know injuries can't be predicted, but I have to believe our record would have been better with both playing the majority of the season.

I don't think there would be a significant obstacle trading Gibson after this year. Maybe I'm wrong, but a 10 team NTC (assuming most teams listed are crap) doesn't seem overly problematic. 

The thing about a netminder having a 10-team NTC is that he can really manipulate where he can go much more than the skaters can because teams usually only pay one primary starting goaltender. So for example, he wouldn't bother to list Winnipeg, Tampa, St Louis or Vegas on his NTC list, since they have elite netminders already and wouldn't be in on Gibson anyway. He also wouldn't list teams that have committed $$ to goaltenders for multiple years, like Boston, the Isles, Montreal, Florida, Calgary or Vancouver. So his 10-team list doesn't really mean there are 22 other teams he can be traded to. More likely, there will only be a handful of teams at any given moment that will both (a) have a need for a goalie and (b) not be on his NTC list. And once you get down to a handful of teams who fit those criteria, you also have to see if those teams even have the assets that you would require in a trade to make it worthwhile. For example, what could San Jose possibly give up in terms of prospects and/or young players that would make it worthwhile to send Gibby there? Not much. So that 10-team list is far more restrictive than it would be for a skater.

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6 hours ago, dtsdlaw said:

I disagree with the bolded. Maybe I'm delusional, but with what we've seen from Comtois, Zegras, and Drysdale this season, I think we're a healthy blue line + another top-6 center + some better coaching (especially the PP) away from being in the playoffs next season. Think about it - next season we go back to the Pacific division, which will have Vegas, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, San Jose, LA and Seattle in it. Outside of Vegas and Edmonton, do any of those teams look like a lock for the playoffs next year to you? We also know that Bob is hot and heavy for a big fish center, and with our cap space and assets he could definitely make it happen. The coaching seems, amazingly, to be the only unrealistic hurdle, but the Ducks should at least have new assistants for next season. Even just promoting Dineen to run the offense and design a PP could be a big boost. But what if we do something like sign RNH? After watching the end of this season, does this roster seem like it can't compete in the Pacific division next season?

Comtois-RNH-Rakell, Henrique-Zegras-Terry, Jones-Getzlaf-Silfverberg, Steel-Lundestrom-Volkov

Lindholm-Manson, Fowler-Shattenkirk, Fleury-Drysdale

Gibson, Stolarz 

Absolutely true for the bolded. But Gibson for Turcotte + Quick would be really something...

After what we've seen over the last three seasons, I think the Ducks are drafting in the top-5 again next season with that roster projection, for which the hockey gods ought to bestow Wright or Lambert upon us. I agree with Gorbachav, the Ducks are too deficient across the board and it's going to take time to get high-end pieces and develop them into a team that can ultimately contend. Also, I don't want to go into the season with the hope that if everything breaks our way, in a weak division, then just maybe we can get into the playoffs where we'd get crushed like we did in 2018 by the first decent opponent. I want a team that can ultimately go shot for shot with Vegas, Colorado and ultimately LA in the future. We are still in the early stages of the rebuild also and I'll die on the hill of going through the pain right now and rebuild the team properly rather than rush through it. I hope this season shattered management's illusion that this team could compete or compete soon which it should have been the case after last year.

The booze budget of sadness will remain high for the time being.

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34 minutes ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

After what we've seen over the last three seasons, I think the Ducks are drafting in the top-5 again next season with that roster projection, for which the hockey gods ought to bestow Wright or Lambert upon us. I agree with Gorbachav, the Ducks are too deficient across the board and it's going to take time to get high-end pieces and develop them into a team that can ultimately contend. Also, I don't want to go into the season with the hope that if everything breaks our way, in a weak division, then just maybe we can get into the playoffs where we'd get crushed like we did in 2018 by the first decent opponent. I want a team that can ultimately go shot for shot with Vegas, Colorado and ultimately LA in the future. We are still in the early stages of the rebuild also and I'll die on the hill of going through the pain right now and rebuild the team properly rather than rush through it. I hope this season shattered management's illusion that this team could compete or compete soon which it should have been the case after last year.

The booze budget of sadness will remain high for the time being.

ya know, if they time it right...the Ducks could be very competitive and contenders right at the same time as that brand new giant park or whatever is finished right by honda center!

And even better if they can time it along ahead (or at least at the same time) as the Kings, too!

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3 hours ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

After what we've seen over the last three seasons, I think the Ducks are drafting in the top-5 again next season with that roster projection, for which the hockey gods ought to bestow Wright or Lambert upon us. I agree with Gorbachav, the Ducks are too deficient across the board and it's going to take time to get high-end pieces and develop them into a team that can ultimately contend. Also, I don't want to go into the season with the hope that if everything breaks our way, in a weak division, then just maybe we can get into the playoffs where we'd get crushed like we did in 2018 by the first decent opponent. I want a team that can ultimately go shot for shot with Vegas, Colorado and ultimately LA in the future. We are still in the early stages of the rebuild also and I'll die on the hill of going through the pain right now and rebuild the team properly rather than rush through it. I hope this season shattered management's illusion that this team could compete or compete soon which it should have been the case after last year.

The booze budget of sadness will remain high for the time being.

Wrong. That's a good lineup. And sorry to burst your bubble, but if the Ducks can draft a Beniers-type this time around, the rebuilding process will be over. It'll be time to start winning again so that these young studs don't go through what Reinhardt has gone through in Buffalo. You can't pick at the top of the draft for more than three straight years or else you turn your saviors into losers. Pittsburgh is the only team that has pulled it off, but they benefitted from the 2004 lockout and Malkin staying in Russia. Crosby, Letang, and MAF had to endure just one season of losing (2005-06) and then they were a playoff team by 2006-07 when Malkin finally came over. And oh yeah, they got smoked in the 1st round by Ottawa in 2007, but that was an important step in the maturation process of a very young team. IMO, it'll do a lot more for Zegras, Drysdale, Comtois, Perreault, Beniers, etc. long term if they make the tournament and get blown out of it than if they head straight for the golf course the day after the regular season ends for the next three years.

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1 hour ago, dtsdlaw said:

Wrong. That's a good lineup. And sorry to burst your bubble, but if the Ducks can draft a Beniers-type this time around, the rebuilding process will be over. It'll be time to start winning again so that these young studs don't go through what Reinhardt has gone through in Buffalo. You can't pick at the top of the draft for more than three straight years or else you turn your saviors into losers. Pittsburgh is the only team that has pulled it off, but they benefitted from the 2004 lockout and Malkin staying in Russia. Crosby, Letang, and MAF had to endure just one season of losing (2005-06) and then they were a playoff team by 2006-07 when Malkin finally came over. And oh yeah, they got smoked in the 1st round by Ottawa in 2007, but that was an important step in the maturation process of a very young team. IMO, it'll do a lot more for Zegras, Drysdale, Comtois, Perreault, Beniers, etc. long term if they make the tournament and get blown out of it than if they head straight for the golf course the day after the regular season ends for the next three years.

When was the last time a team with the second worst record and scored the fewest goals in the league made the playoffs the following season though? That's why I don't see a lineup consisting of mostly the same roster suddenly vying for a playoff spot. Also, is the rebuild is over if we get Beniers? He's a fine player that I hope can be a legit top-6 center if we get him but the reason I'm waiting for 2022/23 is because there are legitimately higher ceiling prospects than Beniers that I'm betting could really move the needle on this team's future. 

Tampa didn't make the playoffs in Stamkos' first two seasons and the first season with him and Hedman together, resulting in them drafting three straight years in the top-6 (2008-2010). They made the playoffs in 2010-2011, then missed the playoffs the next two seasons before getting swept in the first round by Montreal. It didn't give them a loser's mentality. Zegras, Drysdale, Perreault, this year's pick are on the Ducks because the team is not good and that the beginning of their careers are going to have more losses than wins. Rebuilds take time and I think that they know that (the Rangers had top two picks the last two years and still struggled). Eichel and Reinhart have been in Buffalo for six seasons where they are still a dumpster fire and rightfully want out. So, I'm not going to panic about a losing culture for players who just broke into the NHL...At least not yet. Get back to me after 2023!

Edited by BombaysTripleDeke
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8 hours ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

When was the last time a team with the second worst record and scored the fewest goals in the league made the playoffs the following season though? That's why I don't see a lineup consisting of mostly the same roster suddenly vying for a playoff spot. Also, is the rebuild is over if we get Beniers? He's a fine player that I hope can be a legit top-6 center if we get him but the reason I'm waiting for 2022/23 is because there are legitimately higher ceiling prospects than Beniers that I'm betting could really move the needle on this team's future. 

Tampa didn't make the playoffs in Stamkos' first two seasons and the first season with him and Hedman together, resulting in them drafting three straight years in the top-6 (2008-2010). They made the playoffs in 2010-2011, then missed the playoffs the next two seasons before getting swept in the first round by Montreal. It didn't give them a loser's mentality. Zegras, Drysdale, Perreault, this year's pick are on the Ducks because the team is not good and that the beginning of their careers are going to have more losses than wins. Rebuilds take time and I think that they know that (the Rangers had top two picks the last two years and still struggled). Eichel and Reinhart have been in Buffalo for six seasons where they are still a dumpster fire and rightfully want out. So, I'm not going to panic about a losing culture for players who just broke into the NHL...At least not yet. Get back to me after 2023!

I think your comparison to Tampa isn't really meaningful for the point you're making. The Lightning lost game 7 of the 2011 conference finals to the eventual champs (Boston) in what was Stamkos' draft+3 season and Hedman's draft+2 season (also the same season Marty St Louis posted 99 points as a 35-year-old). Guess what next season is for the Ducks? Zegras=draft+3. Drysdale=draft+2. Stamkos and Hedman tasted MASSIVE success very early on in their careers playing alongside organizational legends like St. Louis and Lecavalier, but what you've been proposing is for Zegras and Drysdale to finish in the bottom-3 of the league for two and maybe even three straight seasons while playing with a bunch of borderline NHLers after we trade away Lindholm and Rakell. Apple, meet orange. 

And btw, congratulations to the Lightning for getting that 3rd straight top-10 pick in 2010, Brett Connolly. What a difference maker. In fact, the next three top-10 picks for the Lightning were Brett Connolly (6th in 2010), Slater Koekkoek (10th in 2012), and Drouin (3rd in 2013). Hardly the pieces they have rebuilt with. The reality of the Tampa Bay Lightning success story is that they have hit on players NOT taken in the top-10. Kucherov (#58), Brayden Point (#79), Palat (#208), Cirelli (#72), Killorn (#77), Tyler Johnson (undrafted), Yanni Gourde (undrafted).... frankly, I'd love to imitate the Lightning - i.e. grab two impact players near the top of back-to-back drafts (Zegras + Drysdale) and then score big on a dozen other players drafted in the 2nd, 3rd and later rounds (or not at all). Sign me up for that rebuild! But that's miles different from you're proposing.

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9 hours ago, gorbachav5 said:

The Ducks finished with a .330 regulation points percentage this season (the number of points they earned in regulation divided by the total possible). Here is a list of teams with a .350 or below regulation points percentage (since the lockout) to make the playoffs the following year:

  • 16-17 Colorado Avalanche: Have an MVP on their team, Nathan MacKinnon (picked 1st overall), benefitted from drafting in the top 10 five times in nine years, including four top 4 picks.
  • 08-09 Colorado: A terrible team who had a dead cat bounce the following year to make the playoffs (where they lost in the first round) and didn't win a playoff series for the next 10 years
  • 06-07 Philadelphia: A weird one-season blip in the middle of a lot of good seasons.  This was a strange year where a bunch of guys were hurt and their next wave of star players weren't ready until the following season (Richards, Carter, etc.)
  • 05-06 Pittsburgh: Sidney Crosby (drafted 1st overall)

To expand the search further, teams with a .375 or below reg. pt. pct. to make the playoffs the following year:

  • 16-17 NJ Devils: They made it the following year entirely because they had the MVP (Taylor Hall - drafted 1st overall), and they promptly went into the toilet again immediately afterward.
  • 15-16 Toronto: Their final season of being bad after missing the playoffs for 10 out of 11 seasons since the lockout.  Also, Auston Matthews (drafted 1st overall)
  • 15-16 Edmonton: Connor McDavid (drafted 1st overall), and they went back to being bad immediately afterward for another few years.
  • 12-13 Colorado: Had a crazy good year the following year, then went back to being bad for three more years

What does this tell us?  In order to go from abjectly terrible to playoffs in one year, here are the options:

  1. Be consistently good and just have one off year (06 Philly) - not this year's Ducks.
  2. Get lucky for a season and then immediately go back to being bad for several years (09 Avs, 13 Avs, 17 Devils, 16 Oilers) - this could be the Ducks, but do we want it to be?  These teams were arguably set back by their weird lucky year.  They didn't use it to build a culture of winning.
  3. Have a superstar MVP join your team, probably drafted 1st overall, generally following a long period of sustained awfulness, and then build around him (17 Avs, 06 Pens, 16 Leafs) - I would love for this to be the Ducks, but they haven't been as consistently bad as these teams, and Beniers does not project to become the next MacKinnon, Crosby, or Matthews.

I think the Ducks' best hope is to be a category 3 team after NEXT season or the season after.  Let's use the Avs as the example.  Zegras and Drysdale could be Rantanen and Makar in a few years.  They've got some solid depth pieces to form a decent supporting cast.  But they need their MacKinnon in the 2022 draft.  It's similar if we want to compare to Toronto - Zegras and Drysdale can be Marner and Rielly.  And they could sign a free agent to be their Tavares.  But they need to draft a Matthews.  The only way to speed this up is if literally everyone is wrong about this upcoming draft, the Ducks choose the right guy, and he becomes a top line forward from day 1.  It's not impossible, just incredibly unrealistic.

First, why are you only talking about regulation points %? OT and shoot-out points still count the same as regulation points. Are you just cherry-picking? And why not also note the actual point % for each team? That 2016-17 Colorado team was epically bad, with a .244 regulation points % and a .293 all points %. I don't know how you can compare teams properly if you're not going to disclose the real numbers.

That said, I'm not going to go team-by-team to explain why the Ducks are different, but I firmly believe they are different. First and foremost, this team is more talented than their points %. (1) None of those teams had to take a 10-month break from hockey due to Covid. The 2012-13 lockout caused a long layoff, but that affected everyone equally. The Ducks were one of only 7 teams that didn't play hockey between March and January - Anaheim, LA, San Jose, Buffalo, New Jersey, Detroit, and Ottawa. That's also 7 of the bottom 9 teams in the NHL this season (or it will be once Calgary passes Ottawa with its makeup games). I'm not going to argue that those teams are good now, but you can't convince me that the layoff didn't affect the teams that were left out of the 2020 playoff bubble. They also had a shortened training camp and, with the condensed schedule, they also got very little practice time. That alone is a critical difference. (2) The team the Ducks finished with is not the team they started with and played most of the season with. You and Bombay aren't giving enough consideration to Zegras and what he's already bringing to the team. He's going to be our #1 very soon. He's our MacKinnon. The final 7 games when he got to play center gave us just a glimpse of the future (2G/4A, 3-2-2 record). Having him as a top-2 center next season is massively different than how we started this season with Steel and Lundestrom regularly playing in the 2C role. Add another top-2C and we're in business, much more than e were with a 35-year-old Getzlaf and Steel/Lundestrom as our 1-2 punch (slap?). Good teams are still built down the middle. (3) Our incredibly poor record is due in large part to our league-worst power play. I don't know if its still true, but a month or two ago the Ducks led the league in 1-goal losses. If the Ducks had a PP that was even middle of the road, they're 8-10 points better just from losing those close games. And I do believe 100% that the PP can be turned around in just one offseason. Heck, the PP is already significantly better with the late season additions of Zegras and Drysdale. Those guys can be game changers for the PP, and if the Ducks could add even one more top-6 player and a coach that can design a decent power play, they could easily go from dead last to top-10 on the PP next season. I challenge you to convince me why a top-unit of Zegras-Drysdale-Comtois-Terry-RNH and a 2nd unit of Getzlaf-Henrique-Rakell-Fowler-Shattenkirk couldn't be top-10 in the NHL as early as next season. Even without RNH, those units are going to be massively better if the Ducks bring in a new assistant to run the PP, which they almost certainly will. The power play alone is going to ruin your dreams of getting Wright or Lambert next season, so we might as will start building with bona fide players from elsewhere. I'd hate to see yet another tanked season turn into Brett Connolly...

Edited by dtsdlaw
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On 5/12/2021 at 10:11 AM, dtsdlaw said:

Agreed, but I also think the Ducks are at a bit of a crossroads with regard to Gibson, so the possibility of trade is quite relevant. If the plan is to continue to suck in the hopes that we can get Shane Wright in 2022 or Connor Bedard in 2023, then I think Gibby should be moved. His save % the past two seasons dipped to .904 last season and .903 this season, and anyone who has watched him play can see the losing is clearly affecting his motivation and compete level. Gibby was still pretty good for most of last season despite a bad team in front of him, but he just wasn't very good at all this season after the first month or so. If they continue to be a bottom-of-the-league losing team next season, look for him to be below .900 in save % and his effort level to crater even further.

He also has a 10-team NTC that kicks in next season, which will make it more challenging to maximize a return if he is moved at some point down the road. So I think the Ducks have to make a decision on him soon - i.e. do you try to upgrade the team immediately to get back in the playoff mix next season and hope for a Gibby rebound? Or do you use Gibson as trade bait to fuel a longer but more robust rebuild that won't net results for 2-3+ more seasons? That's probably a good discussion topic for its own thread, but I'm in the former camp. I think we need to get back to our winning ways as early as possible so that the stench of losing doesn't linger on this team the way it does in Buffalo. I know others disagree though, so its worth having the discussion. 

I've seen this argument a lot but I honestly think it is more about overworking him. Whenever he missed time this past season due to minor injuries and then came back, suddenly he looked refreshed and back to his old self again. But playing 12 games in a row gets him to the point where it looks like he isn't motivated anymore. Perhaps we should stop riding him into the ground to the point of injury and then maybe he wouldn't keep looking like that?

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34 minutes ago, nieder said:

I've seen this argument a lot but I honestly think it is more about overworking him. Whenever he missed time this past season due to minor injuries and then came back, suddenly he looked refreshed and back to his old self again. But playing 12 games in a row gets him to the point where it looks like he isn't motivated anymore. Perhaps we should stop riding him into the ground to the point of injury and then maybe he wouldn't keep looking like that?

Agreed, but he also had some really tough stretches of games during those losing streaks where he supposedly healthy but he just couldn't stop anything. His body language was also really bad at times. Much worse than last season or even 2018-19 when he was getting shelled on a nightly basis. That time he just tossed his stick in the air after a goal a couple of weeks ago was pretty telling to me. Eric Stephens' article in the Athletic also makes me wonder where his head will be at next season if there aren't significant improvements to the roster:

Quote

It was interesting that Gibson mentioned how he wasn’t expected to sit down with Murray or coach Dallas Eakins until possibly the first half of June when he returns from his offseason home outside Pittsburgh after enjoying some downtime. But he wants to have some meaty conversations, ostensibly about the team’s direction and offseason plans.

This wasn’t remotely in the kind of space Jack Eichel operated in with his thinly veiled contempt for how Buffalo has treated him and his neck injury, much less his overall frustration with the Sabres and unending losing. But you do get the feeling that Gibson is going to be an interested observer with what Murray does with the roster this summer.

When asked by The Athletic if he’d like to see the roster upgraded so that the Ducks would be in a better position to have success, Gibson didn’t block the question as if it was a harmless point shot he punched into the corner with his paddle. There is an expectation on his part that it won’t look the same when September rolls around.

“I think if you look at it, obviously we haven’t had much success over the last few years,” he said. “So, I think when that builds up over time, more than likely something’s going to change. You know what I mean? I wouldn’t be surprised if something changes. Obviously, I think we need to be in a spot at least contending for the playoff spot. It seemed like this year after the first month and a half of the season, you look at it, it was going to be tough for us to come back. I don’t think anybody wants that. So, I think we need to try and take a step forward. Be competing for the playoffs and be a competitive team on a nightly basis.”

https://theathletic.com/2581940/2021/05/11/nobody-wants-to-lose-ducks-goalie-john-gibson-has-hope-for-next-season-after-frustrating-year/

 

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I don't think we're giving enough credit to the improvement of the team over time this season, and of the players that will fill some of the key roles next year.

Next year's Zegras, Drysdale, Comtois, Terry, Lundestrom... will be better.

Yes, we need to add talent to that, but we also need to count on the addition by simply being older.

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3 hours ago, dtsdlaw said:

First, why are you only talking about regulation points %? OT and shoot-out points still count the same as regulation points. Are you just cherry-picking? And why not also note the actual point % for each team? That 2016-17 Colorado team was epically bad, with a .244 regulation points % and a .293 all points %. I don't know how you can compare teams properly if you're not going to disclose the real numbers.

That said, I'm not going to go team-by-team to explain why the Ducks are different, but I firmly believe they are different. First and foremost, this team is more talented than their points %. (1) None of those teams had to take a 10-month break from hockey due to Covid. The 2012-13 lockout caused a long layoff, but that affected everyone equally. The Ducks were one of only 7 teams that didn't play hockey between March and January - Anaheim, LA, San Jose, Buffalo, New Jersey, Detroit, and Ottawa. That's also 7 of the bottom 9 teams in the NHL this season (or it will be once Calgary passes Ottawa with its makeup games). I'm not going to argue that those teams are good now, but you can't convince me that the layoff didn't affect the teams that were left out of the 2020 playoff bubble. They also had a shortened training camp and, with the condensed schedule, they also got very little practice time. That alone is a critical difference. (2) The team the Ducks finished with is not the team they started with and played most of the season with. You and Bombay aren't giving enough consideration to Zegras and what he's already bringing to the team. He's going to be our #1 very soon. He's our MacKinnon. The final 7 games when he got to play center gave us just a glimpse of the future (2G/4A, 3-2-2 record). Having him as a top-2 center next season is massively different than how we started this season with Steel and Lundestrom regularly playing in the 2C role. Add another top-2C and we're in business, much more than e were with a 35-year-old Getzlaf and Steel/Lundestrom as our 1-2 punch (slap?). Good teams are still built down the middle. (3) Our incredibly poor record is due in large part to our league-worst power play. I don't know if its still true, but a month or two ago the Ducks led the league in 1-goal losses. If the Ducks had a PP that was even middle of the road, they're 8-10 points better just from losing those close games. And I do believe 100% that the PP can be turned around in just one offseason. Heck, the PP is already significantly better with the late season additions of Zegras and Drysdale. Those guys can be game changers for the PP, and if the Ducks could add even one more top-6 player and a coach that can design a decent power play, they could easily go from dead last to top-10 on the PP next season. I challenge you to convince me why a top-unit of Zegras-Drysdale-Comtois-Terry-RNH and a 2nd unit of Getzlaf-Henrique-Rakell-Fowler-Shattenkirk couldn't be top-10 in the NHL as early as next season. Even without RNH, those units are going to be massively better if the Ducks bring in a new assistant to run the PP, which they almost certainly will. The power play alone is going to ruin your dreams of getting Wright or Lambert next season, so we might as will start building with bona fide players from elsewhere. I'd hate to see yet another tanked season turn into Brett Connolly...

I agree. Our pp alone next year should kill our hopes for a top pick. We were exceptionally bad. I'm not sure why the assistants were kept this long. I think we're probably closer to a bubble team but who knows. Maybe something to what the kings were this year, ok and could challenge for the last spot before falling out. 

If we want to pick high then we keep our coaching staff. 🤣

Not to mention if we can be relatively injury free then we also will be better. There's just too many things going wrong this year. I just don't think we can really bank on next year's top pick. More likely we're picking around 10th I think. 

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17 hours ago, dtsdlaw said:

Wrong. That's a good lineup. And sorry to burst your bubble, but if the Ducks can draft a Beniers-type this time around, the rebuilding process will be over. It'll be time to start winning again so that these young studs don't go through what Reinhardt has gone through in Buffalo. You can't pick at the top of the draft for more than three straight years or else you turn your saviors into losers. Pittsburgh is the only team that has pulled it off, but they benefitted from the 2004 lockout and Malkin staying in Russia. Crosby, Letang, and MAF had to endure just one season of losing (2005-06) and then they were a playoff team by 2006-07 when Malkin finally came over. And oh yeah, they got smoked in the 1st round by Ottawa in 2007, but that was an important step in the maturation process of a very young team. IMO, it'll do a lot more for Zegras, Drysdale, Comtois, Perreault, Beniers, etc. long term if they make the tournament and get blown out of it than if they head straight for the golf course the day after the regular season ends for the next three years.

 

4 hours ago, gorbachav5 said:

Quite frankly, there isn't much more to say.  Your belief that this team can compete next year is nice, and I appreciate optimism as much as the next guy, but doesn't reflect any sort of reality-based projection.  Of course, I'll be going into next season rooting for the team to win and make the playoffs, because otherwise, fandom is stupid.  However, I don't think it makes sense for the organization to pursue moves toward that goal this offseason.  They should minimize long-term damage by protecting the right guys in the ED, they should explore trading guys who don't look like they're going to sign here past this season (potentially Lindholm, Rakell, Manson, although I'd really like to re-sign the former two), and they should focus on developing the youngsters.  Given that Murray is still in charge and Eakins will most likely still be behind the bench, I don't see why I would believe their 5-on-5 systems or their special teams would improve.  I hope they at least get some new assistants, but it's still Murray doing the hiring.

I want to chime in on this and say that you both make some good points.

However dts, I think for the team to be a half decent team like you predict, we need to (a) add at least one big piece to help our scoring in the offseason, whether than is RNH or Hyman or Eichel or whatever, I don't know (but there's no guarantees that we can sign a big name, or make a trade work with so many teams up against a flat cap), and (b) hope that our players manage to stay healthy. I don't know what it is about this team over the last 5 years but it seems like we have so many man games lost every single year. A defense of Lindholm-Manson, Fowler-Shat, Fleury-Drysdale looks good on paper, but Manson missed 21 games last season and 33 games this season. Lindholm was supposed to be back a month before the season ended but never returned, missing 38 games. Who knows what is going on there. When you're missing 2 of your top 4 guys that puts a pretty big dent in the back end, especially when the replacements are guys like Welinski and Larsson. That's not even getting into the forwards. We have to hope that Silf recovers well from his surgery. Then we have to hope that the kids continue to improve as expected (I don't have much doubt about Zegras and Drysdale, but guys like Terry are still a question mark for me).

It just seems like a lot of hope. If everything goes right, we sign a decent free agent, Zegras becomes a bona fide #1C and Drysdale a top pair defenseman, young guys like Terry, Jones, Lundestrom and Comtois continue to improve, we perhaps add somebody else through the draft (or maybe Perreault is ready to play some NHL games next year), and we can stay healthy and vets like Silf and Lindholm return strongly from major injuries.....then yeah, this team could compete for a playoff spot. But it seems like everything would have to go right.

In the end I feel like next season this team will be somewhere between a wildcard playoff team and a basement team. They should take a step forward, but I don't know if it will be enough to make them a playoff threat.

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What about going hard after Landeskog instead of Eichel? He is still UFA, I am assuming he is going to test the market otherwise he would have signed with the Avs by now.

 

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7 hours ago, dtsdlaw said:

First, why are you only talking about regulation points %? OT and shoot-out points still count the same as regulation points. Are you just cherry-picking? And why not also note the actual point % for each team? That 2016-17 Colorado team was epically bad, with a .244 regulation points % and a .293 all points %. I don't know how you can compare teams properly if you're not going to disclose the real numbers.

That said, I'm not going to go team-by-team to explain why the Ducks are different, but I firmly believe they are different. First and foremost, this team is more talented than their points %. (1) None of those teams had to take a 10-month break from hockey due to Covid. The 2012-13 lockout caused a long layoff, but that affected everyone equally. The Ducks were one of only 7 teams that didn't play hockey between March and January - Anaheim, LA, San Jose, Buffalo, New Jersey, Detroit, and Ottawa. That's also 7 of the bottom 9 teams in the NHL this season (or it will be once Calgary passes Ottawa with its makeup games). I'm not going to argue that those teams are good now, but you can't convince me that the layoff didn't affect the teams that were left out of the 2020 playoff bubble. They also had a shortened training camp and, with the condensed schedule, they also got very little practice time. That alone is a critical difference. (2) The team the Ducks finished with is not the team they started with and played most of the season with. You and Bombay aren't giving enough consideration to Zegras and what he's already bringing to the team. He's going to be our #1 very soon. He's our MacKinnon. The final 7 games when he got to play center gave us just a glimpse of the future (2G/4A, 3-2-2 record). Having him as a top-2 center next season is massively different than how we started this season with Steel and Lundestrom regularly playing in the 2C role. Add another top-2C and we're in business, much more than e were with a 35-year-old Getzlaf and Steel/Lundestrom as our 1-2 punch (slap?). Good teams are still built down the middle. (3) Our incredibly poor record is due in large part to our league-worst power play. I don't know if its still true, but a month or two ago the Ducks led the league in 1-goal losses. If the Ducks had a PP that was even middle of the road, they're 8-10 points better just from losing those close games. And I do believe 100% that the PP can be turned around in just one offseason. Heck, the PP is already significantly better with the late season additions of Zegras and Drysdale. Those guys can be game changers for the PP, and if the Ducks could add even one more top-6 player and a coach that can design a decent power play, they could easily go from dead last to top-10 on the PP next season. I challenge you to convince me why a top-unit of Zegras-Drysdale-Comtois-Terry-RNH and a 2nd unit of Getzlaf-Henrique-Rakell-Fowler-Shattenkirk couldn't be top-10 in the NHL as early as next season. Even without RNH, those units are going to be massively better if the Ducks bring in a new assistant to run the PP, which they almost certainly will. The power play alone is going to ruin your dreams of getting Wright or Lambert next season, so we might as will start building with bona fide players from elsewhere. I'd hate to see yet another tanked season turn into Brett Connolly...

primarily, because you've included the Shatt in your lineup.  part of the reason why the PP has been abysmal (there are many reasons) is that they kept putting him out on the PP to try to dredge any kind of offensive stats out of him and mirage-sweeten a trade or layoff to Seattle.  

it's crazy how Dehydrated Donkey Dungty both the Ducks and Toronto are on the PP this season.  the Ducks are penalized so often, you'd think they'd learn a decent PP strategy just from seeing so many while on the PK.  Toronto... they have no excuse.  in any event, whatever coaching we're looking to acquire for a better PP, it's going to be competing with Toronto's enquiries.  

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34 minutes ago, gorbachav5 said:

Do we really think Landeskog makes it to free agency?  I have to think he re-signs with Colorado right after the expansion draft.  He's beloved there, and, as hard as it is to believe, he's still only 28.  If he does make it to free agency, I'd much rather go after Landeskog for $7.5 million per year than Eichel for $10.  You could make the argument that Landeskog won't be nearly as good without MacKinnon and Rantanen alongside him, and I can't say you're wrong, but I enjoy him as a player so much more than Eichel.  And he wouldn't cost team assets.

Yeah, I have to think him not signing is more for the ED than anything else.

I was big on seeing if we could get Landeskog back when the avs were bad and we were good lol (around 2014-16ish? I can't remember exactly). The idea of a Landeskog-Getz-Perry line just seemed EPIC. And with Kesler and others...we would have been greatly feared physically...not sure how much I see it making sense now...especially with the team being *probably* 3 seasons-ish away from really contending again.

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4 hours ago, gotchabari said:

I don't think we're giving enough credit to the improvement of the team over time this season, and of the players that will fill some of the key roles next year.

Next year's Zegras, Drysdale, Comtois, Terry, Lundestrom... will be better.

Yes, we need to add talent to that, but we also need to count on the addition by simply being older.

i really liked what I saw of TT over the last month of the season.  he just looks so, so much stronger than even the beginning of this season.

lundestrom turned a corner and is steadily improving, but for his surgery.  

maxC - i'm a little suspect of his surge, given the RFA year and all.  he's made strides, is looking super strong, but he's not quite the puck owner i want him to be on the ice, not yet.  i'm also not quite as sure about his development over the season - he came in much stronger than last season, but i'm not sure he continued to improve at a decent pace over the season.  just an observation - i think he's worth whatever it takes to keep him around.

Z and D - sheesh, i have nothing but high hopes (and expectations) for them.

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I don’t really think he’s worth it as in he’s not really a good fit for where this franchise is at. This team is probably at minimum another 2 losing seasons before they can really start to turn the corner. 

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