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dtsdlaw

Expansion Draft Predictions

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52 minutes ago, tommer-1 said:

I'm curious to know what everyone else thinks, but to me this roster looks VERY weak/inexperienced at C and G.

Not really how you build a team.

G i think will be OK....C....well......they certainly have room for Eichel or Beniers.... ...and Rico!!

Edited by Jasoaks

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58 minutes ago, tommer-1 said:

I'm curious to know what everyone else thinks, but to me this roster looks VERY weak/inexperienced at C and G.

Not really how you build a team.

Go look at just the Vegas expansion picks only with none of the trades.  And then report back. thanks.

Vast majority of what made them good was from the trades, not the expansion picks.

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1 hour ago, tommer-1 said:

Yeah, that roster looks pretty funky to me.

But, for the sake of full disclosure, I felt similarly about VGK's inaugural roster...

And I was FAAAAR from alone in that feeling.

i felt the same way about Vegas...

minus them getting Fluery, Karlsson, Marchessault, McNabb, Perron....there's not much to feel excited about for Seattle right now....

I mean...Fleury bros, McCann, Gourde, Dunn, Eberle, Donskoi, Driedger could be pretty solid for them, Gourde too... i dunno, maybe they'll be OK once they get Eichel.

I still don't feel like Seattle is gonna get the same season as Vegas...

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42 minutes ago, JiggyToTheCup said:

Go look at just the Vegas expansion picks only with none of the trades.  And then report back. thanks.

Vast majority of what made them good was from the trades, not the expansion picks.

I looked up their starting lineup for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final against Washington (here: https://sinbin.vegas/line-charts/#2017-18 Regular Season). Players they selected in the expansion draft are in bold:

Marchessault - Karlsson - Smith

Neal - Haula - Tuch

Carpenter - Eakin - Perron

Nosek - Bellemare - Reaves

McNabb - Schmidt

Theodore - Engelland

Sbisa - Miller

Fleury

Carpenter was claimed off waivers midseason from San Jose and was in for Tomas Tatar, who Vegas acquired at the deadline from Montreal. Reaves was also a TDL acquisition from Pittsburgh in a 3-way deal with Ottawa. So really only Reilly Smith, Alex Tuch, and Theo were significant players that were acquired in the expansion draft related trades.

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4 minutes ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:


makes great sense. Seattle should be bludgeoning teams like this and getting assets for cap relief.

seems odd that the Kraken wouldn't be going fishing for high priced fish...isn't that like their main source of food?????? They need sustenance! 

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37 minutes ago, dtsdlaw said:

I looked up their starting lineup for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final against Washington (here: https://sinbin.vegas/line-charts/#2017-18 Regular Season). Players they selected in the expansion draft are in bold:

Marchessault - Karlsson - Smith

Neal - Haula - Tuch

Carpenter - Eakin - Perron

Nosek - Bellemare - Reaves

McNabb - Schmidt

Theodore - Engelland

Sbisa - Miller

Fleury

Carpenter was claimed off waivers midseason from San Jose and was in for Tomas Tatar, who Vegas acquired at the deadline from Montreal. Reaves was also a TDL acquisition from Pittsburgh in a 3-way deal with Ottawa. So really only Reilly Smith, Alex Tuch, and Theo were significant players that were acquired in the expansion draft related trades.

Yeah, many more better players exposed back then due to the draft rules tomfoolery.  This time they expected it, so no deals like Marchessault AND a Reilly trade.

There's a reason very few are still with them today.  As dark as it seems, I do think the Vegas shooting had an impact on making that first group a little better than they should have been, but since then they have been working trades like mad. 

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46 minutes ago, dtsdlaw said:

I looked up their starting lineup for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final against Washington (here: https://sinbin.vegas/line-charts/#2017-18 Regular Season). Players they selected in the expansion draft are in bold:

Marchessault - Karlsson - Smith

Neal - Haula - Tuch

Carpenter - Eakin - Perron

Nosek - Bellemare - Reaves

McNabb - Schmidt

Theodore - Engelland

Sbisa - Miller

Fleury

Carpenter was claimed off waivers midseason from San Jose and was in for Tomas Tatar, who Vegas acquired at the deadline from Montreal. Reaves was also a TDL acquisition from Pittsburgh in a 3-way deal with Ottawa. So really only Reilly Smith, Alex Tuch, and Theo were significant players that were acquired in the expansion draft related trades.

Yeah, the big fallacy in regards to the Golden Knights from that first season was that the guys they picked in the expansion draft were not the real key to their success.

Everybody hated on their draft, then praised the team in May, and acted like that Cup Final team wasn't 75% drafted, and included Karlsson, Marchessault, Neal, Haula, Eakin, Perron, Schmidt, McNabb, Englelland, and Fleury, who were all big in their success.

Edited by tommer-1

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7 hours ago, gorbachav5 said:

I still don't buy that you need guys to protect anyone any more.  Dirty players are going to play dirty regardless of the number of "enforcers" you employ.  It's not like Deslauriers will ever be out there on the ice with Zegras (I hope).  These aren't the 80's and 90's when tough guys would actually make guys pay for their cheap shots and the league was okay with it.

Deslauriers seems like a good dude, and he's not completely useless.  But he's also not helping score goals.

I agree with you but...we fans like to see retribution if one of our younger guys is being abused.  ND serves that roll and like we've said he's not totally useless beyond that.

Edited by WolfgangDuck

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49 minutes ago, dtsdlaw said:

I looked up their starting lineup for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final against Washington (here: https://sinbin.vegas/line-charts/#2017-18 Regular Season). Players they selected in the expansion draft are in bold:

Marchessault - Karlsson - Smith

Neal - Haula - Tuch

Carpenter - Eakin - Perron

Nosek - Bellemare - Reaves

McNabb - Schmidt

Theodore - Engelland

Sbisa - Miller

Fleury

Carpenter was claimed off waivers midseason from San Jose and was in for Tomas Tatar, who Vegas acquired at the deadline from Montreal. Reaves was also a TDL acquisition from Pittsburgh in a 3-way deal with Ottawa. So really only Reilly Smith, Alex Tuch, and Theo were significant players that were acquired in the expansion draft related trades.

And, it's pretty clear that their inaugural team was the best team they have iced in their 4 seasons.

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8 minutes ago, gotchabari said:

 but since then they have been working trades like mad. 

That Knights group is aging no? Don’t know the avg age but to me it seems like they are up there and if they don’t win it all any time soon and then they’ll have to look to getting younger. It could be a long road for them. That could be the Downside of drafting these top tier talent right away instead of going young and developing 

Edited by Pazonator

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20 minutes ago, tommer-1 said:

And, it's pretty clear that their inaugural team was the best team they have iced in their 4 seasons.

I disagree with that.  I think their last two teams would trounce their first year team.

Making it to the Finals relies on a lot of things, including the quality of your opponents.  The Sharks and Ducks were both starting a downward spiral, and weren't strong in the playoffs.  Nashville matched up better with Vegas, but the bracket allowed Winnipeg to take them out first due to their match-up advantages.  Overall, the West was weak.  The current Knights team is worlds better, but also so is the rest of the Conference.

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30 minutes ago, gotchabari said:

Yeah, many more better players exposed back then due to the draft rules tomfoolery.  This time they expected it, so no deals like Marchessault AND a Reilly trade.

There's a reason very few are still with them today.  As dark as it seems, I do think the Vegas shooting had an impact on making that first group a little better than they should have been, but since then they have been working trades like mad. 

Interestingly, the Ducks have actually made more trades since the start of the 2017-18 season than Vegas has. Theirs have just been more impactful in getting top players like Stone, Patches, Stephenson, Martinez, and Lehner, while the Ducks have spent a lot of time moving the deck chairs around.

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2 minutes ago, gotchabari said:

I disagree with that.  I think their last two teams would trounce their first year team.

Making it to the Finals relies on a lot of things, including the quality of your opponents.  The Sharks and Ducks were both starting a downward spiral, and weren't strong in the playoffs.  Nashville matched up better with Vegas, but the bracket allowed Winnipeg to take them out first due to their match-up advantages.  Overall, the West was weak.  The current Knights team is worlds better, but also so is the rest of the Conference.

Yeah, this past year's team for sure was better. Just adding Pietrangelo, Stone, and Pacioretty makes them head and shoulders better than 2017-18.

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56 minutes ago, gotchabari said:

I disagree with that.  I think their last two teams would trounce their first year team.

Making it to the Finals relies on a lot of things, including the quality of your opponents.  The Sharks and Ducks were both starting a downward spiral, and weren't strong in the playoffs.  Nashville matched up better with Vegas, but the bracket allowed Winnipeg to take them out first due to their match-up advantages.  Overall, the West was weak.  The current Knights team is worlds better, but also so is the rest of the Conference.

 

53 minutes ago, dtsdlaw said:

Yeah, this past year's team for sure was better. Just adding Pietrangelo, Stone, and Pacioretty makes them head and shoulders better than 2017-18.

On paper, yeah, this season's team has better talent.  On the ice?

That 2017/2018 just jumped teams. Remember how many games they won with 3rd-string goalies? Fleury played in 46 games and went 29-13-4.

Dansk, Subban, and Lagace combined to go 22-11-3.

The goalie situation the last two seasons for them has been much stronger. This season's team was a regular season juggernaut and looked like they were going to go all the way to the Finals, and just failed miserably against the Canadiens. There's no way they should have lost to them. They should have handled them the way Tampa did.

I think the coaching and style of play was better for them in 2017 than it was this season, as well.  That inaugural team had the second best point percentage for them.

 

As for the Sharks and Ducks being on a downward spiral, the Sharks went to the Cup final in 2015/16 and the Ducks went to the WCF in 2016/17, so they were only 1-2 years removed from that success. 

2013/14 SC Winner - LAK

2014/2015 WCF - ANA

2015/16 SCF - SJS

2016/17 WCF - ANA

2017/18 SCF - VGK

 

I'm sure that this years' team could handle the 2017/18 team in a 7-game series, but I wouldn't bet on it.  That team was legit.

 

I had a lot of arguments, with quite a few people, midway through that 2017/18 season about the Knights v. Ducks roster. Who would you take? No Duck fan would take the Knights' roster. Not one.  And they were borderline psychotic that anyone would think otherwise.  Vegas was just lucky, teams taking them too lightly, name your excuse. So then the Sharks just embarrass the Ducks, and then the Knights dispatch the Sharks without much trouble.

They all picked the Ducks roster.  Sometimes the better team doesn't have the better roster. Sum greater than the parts, and all that.

Edited by tommer-1

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2 hours ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:


makes great sense. Seattle should be bludgeoning teams like this and getting assets for cap relief.

Got to hope Murray doesn’t do something stupid to get rid of Henrique’s contract. So far he’s handled the expansion draft well if all we lost was Fluery or Hakanpaa + 6th round pick (whichever way you want to look at it). There really shouldn’t be any rush to do something with Henrique considering where the team is and the fact that he’s still productive. I wouldn’t even be surprised if Henrique could turn into a good asset down the line if the Ducks were willing to retain money in a trade, and his play doesn’t fall off a cliff.

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5 hours ago, BombaysTripleDeke said:

I thought Mahura was the favorite for Seattle to take. My issue was him not getting NHL games while Larsson was surgically attached to the lineup and even Hutton. Seattle taking Fluery isn’t surprising, especially with his connection to Francis. 

my take is that was by design.  BM knew that Mahura would be a desirable pick, so he kept him relatively bottled up in hopes that the Shatt or Larsson would do enough to look better to Seattle.  when Shatt and Larsson sucked it, BM grabbed Fleury as an also ran... but sadly Fleury looked pretty good in the short time we had him.  jury is still out as to Fleury v. Mahura (to me, anyway).  

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1 hour ago, dtsdlaw said:

Interestingly, the Ducks have actually made more trades since the start of the 2017-18 season than Vegas has. Theirs have just been more impactful in getting top players like Stone, Patches, Stephenson, Martinez, and Lehner, while the Ducks have spent a lot of time moving the deck chairs around.

Well, yeah.  They had a lot of assets and picks to get that done that a non-expansion team didn't have.

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1 hour ago, tommer-1 said:

 

As for the Sharks and Ducks being on a downward spiral, the Sharks went to the Cup final in 2015/16 and the Ducks went to the WCF in 2016/17, so they were only 1-2 years removed from that success. 

 

Beginning a downward spiral, evidenced by a decent regular season, but no gas left in the playoffs.

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6 hours ago, gorbachav5 said:

From wikipedia:

we're missing all this extra stuff... all we're seeing so far is guesses at the selections....

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wow, these announcers aren't holding ANY jabs back! Jabs at Toronto....jabs at Vegas for their lack of center depth lol

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11 minutes ago, Jasoaks said:

wow, these announcers aren't holding ANY jabs back! Jabs at Toronto....jabs at Vegas for their lack of center depth lol

now i'm fraking scared what they'll say when they come to us...

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48 minutes ago, Fisix said:

we're missing all this extra stuff... all we're seeing so far is guesses at the selections....

Yep. We keep ignoring all of these additional picks and prospects they got from the background deals. Picks and prospect they were able to use to make them a stronger team by flipping them for assets such as Stastny, Pacioretty, Stone, Martinez, etc. They were in position in 2017 to build for the future.

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12 minutes ago, Fisix said:

now i'm fraking scared what they'll say when they come to us...

haha ohhh im sure it's gonna be like "well a team that can really score so they protected forwards" or something i dunno...it's gonna be hilarious though 

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4 hours ago, dtsdlaw said:

I looked up their starting lineup for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final against Washington (here: https://sinbin.vegas/line-charts/#2017-18 Regular Season). Players they selected in the expansion draft are in bold:

Marchessault - Karlsson - Smith

Neal - Haula - Tuch

Carpenter - Eakin - Perron

Nosek - Bellemare - Reaves

McNabb - Schmidt

Theodore - Engelland

Sbisa - Miller

Fleury

Carpenter was claimed off waivers midseason from San Jose and was in for Tomas Tatar, who Vegas acquired at the deadline from Montreal. Reaves was also a TDL acquisition from Pittsburgh in a 3-way deal with Ottawa. So really only Reilly Smith, Alex Tuch, and Theo were significant players that were acquired in the expansion draft related trades.

Nice work.  But no way they make it without Smith, Tuch and Theodore.

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